Must be in an article, not a podcast, not a transcript of a podcast, the word "Manifold" must appear in the main text of the article (i.e. not in a tooltip or the url of a link that has different text, not as a footnote), and must be referring to Manifold the prediction market website, as we know it, not some other use of the word.
Relevant timezone for "Before Oct 10th" is Pacific time.
1,000
3.00@FrederickNorris there prob would be no reason to because the tech reporters wouldn't start working on the war
@lag Apparently, many of the traders here have never been hyped up by a reporter trying to get you to cooperate, and then the story never materialized. And I'm talking small papers, forget about the NYT. But hey, that's why there are markets.
@chrisjbillington "Will there be an article published in the New York Times, page 3, right column with an ad for Tide Pods distributed for publication at 9:15 AM October 9?"
Average Manifolder: "The base rates on such a thing is so low given the conjunction fallacy, that I feel comfortable betting this down to 0.01%"
@Mira
> creator bets their life savings
> due to a daylight savings software bug, article is actually published at 8:15am