When will something surprising/big finally happen? (Vibes based)

512

Ṁ22K

Ṁ2.2K

resolved Apr 24

ALL

100%99.4%

In April

0.0%

In February

0.1%

In March

0.1%

In May

0.1%

In June

0.1%

In July

0.0%

In August

0.0%

In September

0.0%

In October

0.1%Other

Resolves to the single earliest period in which something surprising happens, per the criteria below.

This is an experimental variant of /Joshua/will-nothing-ever-happen-permanent '

That market uses very specific criteria to be more objective, this market does not. This market resolves when I personally decide that something big and surprising has finally happened on Manifold, after quite a while of nothing happening.

This is a higher bar, as most of the Somethings Happening in the main market have ended up being kind of anticlimactic like 2023 being declared the hottest year or Destiny finalizing his divorce.

To count for this market, something has to be:

Very big on Manifold
Surprising to Manifold
A real world event, not just a meta manifold thing or a streamer thing

Here are the previous things that would have counted for this market, if it had existed before:

Taylor Swift being named POTY
Sam Altman being fired and rehired
Mike Johnson becoming Speaker of the House
Donald Trump being indicted

Upcoming, scheduled events will probably not count. I doubt the Superbowl will count, or the Oscars. Trump getting convicted might count. The US election will probably not count unless Manifold has one candidate heavily favored to win and then they lose.

These criteria will almost certainly be updated, and I am open to suggestions of how to do so.

I may add more months, which will split off from Other. But hopefully something surprising finally happens before then.

I will not trade in this market.

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25 Comments

52 Holders

173 Trades

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bought Ṁ5,000 In April YES

Surprise!

@Joshua something happened!

bought Ṁ40 In April YES

Does the TikTok ban count? It seems surprising to me, especially when combined with the Ukraine aid bill, and the market is pretty big. It has 1.2k traders currently compared to the Speaker of the House's 1.3k.

@Arky Yes, i think it would!

US presidential year, October surprise!

Does the bridge collapse count?

@adele Was there a market on that? It has to be a big market.

@MugaSofer Yeah, bridge doesn't count. Previous cases are POTY, SOTH, OAI CEO, Trump Indictment. I don't think the bridge compares.

I don't understand why POTY is a bigger deal to people, but I guess there were much bigger markets for it. (I'm assuming post hoc markets still count, since it would be weird if something didn't count that was so surprising that nobody on Manifold anticipated it in a market.)

@adele Yeah it's certainly possible for Post-Hoc to count. For example LK-99 would definitely have been on that list of things happening if it was verified as a room temp superconductor, even though all the biggest markets about it were made after the pre-print was published and not before.

In April

bought Ṁ20 In April NO

What's up with April being so high?

@ProjectVictory Maybe GPT 5? I doubt it though.

Edited to make the dates more clear, not sure why I had it like that before.

bought Ṁ10 In May NO

If something happens in May, does “before August 1” resolve as yes? Because if it does there is some good arb opportunity here.

@JimAusman resolves to the single earliest correct option

bought Ṁ3 In July YES

@Joshua took me a few trades to figure out that was a linked market ahah. This is often how the unlinked ones are worded.

reposted

I can't trade here, but "before march 1st" should be at 0% and I don't know why "before april 1st" is as high as it is.

bought Ṁ40 In April NO

@Joshua In the future you shouldn't use this wording on the options unless it's unlinked. I was betting on the options and then went "wait what is this linked?" when the market moved funny. Should just say "During March" etc instead of "before april". I skimmed the description before betting but missed that part. NBD this time just feedback for future

@Joshua GPT-5 has a 20% chance of being announced in March https://manifold.markets/MiraBot/will-gpt5-be-announced-in-march-202

@toms Ohhhh, now that's a great point! The biggest market on GPT 5's release sits at #22 in total traders, and currently thinks there's a 78% chance of it coming out before the end of the year. And of course there's tons of other markets about it on the site besides that one.

So while I'm not sure just an announcement would count as something happening, if a very impressive GPT-5 suddenly /released/ in March I would likely consider that both big and surprising.

In February

bought Ṁ130 In February NO

I assume nothing big/interesting happened. Am I wrong?

@JamesF correct, resolves no

@Joshua I was wondering if you thought either the national security threat or openAI announcing Sora as something happening

@JamesF Great question. I feel like definitely a lot of medium sized things have happened, but the description says "Very Big on Manifold."

And the bar for "very big" I gave was Person of the Year, OAI CEO, Speaker of the House, Trump Indictment. I don't think we've hit that bar yet, but these topics are still developing and could still count as being "very big" if they keep growing.

@Joshua I'll edit "big" into the title, since that is as important as the surprisingness per the criteria