Trump Wins 2024 x Will the United States abandon its policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2028?
30
219
αΉ1.2kαΉ840
2028
1D
1W
1M
ALL
7%
Trump wins 2024 AND the United States abandons its policy of "strategic ambiguity" by 2028
43%
Trump wins 2024 AND the United States does not abandon its policy of "strategic ambiguity" by 2028
6%
Trump loses 2024 AND the United States abandons its policy of "strategic ambiguity" by 2028
44%
Trump loses 2024 AND the United States does not abandon its policy of "strategic ambiguity" by 2028
Live-updating visualization of the conditional probabilities and correlation coefficient:
The answer will be chosen according to the resolution of these two markets:
/duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres
/MarcusAbramovitch/will-the-united-states-abandon-its-117c19944677
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I've used this extremely cool tool to visualize the probabilities here! Apparently people think this is something where Trump might really behave differently from Biden or other possible presidents!
boughtαΉ15Trump wins 2024 AND ... YES
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