If Taylor Swift is the Democratic VP Nominee, will the Democrats win the election? | Manifold

If Taylor Swift is the Democratic VP Nominee, will the Democrats win the election?

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resolved Aug 23

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Resolves N/A if she is not nominated as VP by the end of the Democratic National Convention.

See here for version which does not N/A:

/Joshua/conditional-on-taylor-swift-being-o

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Genuine question, how is this at 89%? Are people betting it up for fun because they know that won't happen? Or this there a good argument for a VP pick increasing the odds by like 40%?

@NathanScott I can see the angle where if it happened, it meant something really crazy happened that suddenly made her a very viable candidate.

Someone should do the back of the envelope calculation for the change in voter turnout if Swift is a candidate in a nationwide election.

People are also trading

Will Taylor Swift endorse the Democratic candidate again in 2028?

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Will Taylor Swift be elected President of the United States by 2050

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Will Taylor Swift run for any political office by EOY 2040?

Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Presidential Election?

If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?

Related questions

Will Taylor Swift endorse the Democratic candidate again in 2028?

Will Taylor Swift win the 2028 presidential election?

Will Taylor Swift ever be elected President?

Will Taylor Swift be elected President of the United States by 2050

Will Taylor Swift run for president of the United States by EOY 2040?

Will Taylor Swift run for any political office by EOY 2040?

Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Presidential Election?

If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?