This is an unlinked market, in which each option can resolve no as it arrives or they can resolves yes all together.
I will resolve based on this page:
I'll be using the Twitter and Threads search terms, not "X" or "X.com" or any of the search topics, as neither X or Threads has a search topic right now. So this resolves by only these exact search terms, using the Worldwide stats starting from the beginning of 2022 (when Google began collecting data using the current methodology).
The peak for Threads was 29/84 = 34.5% of Twitter's popularity in July. The current number is 1/64 = 1.6%. If this ratio is ever 50.0% or more for at least two data data points (a two week period), all remaining months resolve yes. When a month arrives without this having occurred, that month resolves no.
If reasonable comparison becomes impossible because of some unforeseen event like Taylor Swift naming her new album "threads" I may resolve options N/A if it is a permanent data contaminant or wait for trends data to return to normal if it is only a temporary unrelated spike. I am open to other updates to these criteria based on the spirit of the question.
I may add more months, depending on interest in this market.
Would you be willing to refine this more specifically to the domain names? https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2022-01-01%202023-12-09&q=twitter.com,threads.net&hl=en
I like this idea but I also expect searches for Twitter to go up with searches for Threads. Domain name would be more intent focused, meaning someone is trying to go to Threads or Twitter.
@jacksonpolack x.com was already more popular than twitter.com in 2019. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=twitter.com,threads.net,x.com&hl=en
that doesn't change the fact that twitter.com will drop off even harder than twitter if they change the url to x.com
@jacksonpolack What would you propose? Seems to me that x .com was already more popular so it can’t be cleanly separated even if they do change it