At what odds would you bet that UFOs will not be revealed to have a worldview-shattering origin by mid-2028?
At what odds would you bet that UFOs will not be revealed to have a worldview-shattering origin by mid-2028?
51
Never closes
1000 to 1 or greater
500-1 or greater
100-1 or greater
10-1 or greater
2-1 or greater
1-1 or less
See Results
This is a poll meant to measure Manifold's opinions on a market without accounting for the bond rate. Choose the option with the most extreme odds at which you would bet that UFOs are not aliens, time travelers, demons, etc.
Assume you wouldn't have to lock the capital up and that your counterparty pays you in advance, but that you are publicly honor-bound to pay if you're wrong.
For example, at 100-1 you get 1000 mana today and promise to pay 100,000 mana if you are proven wrong by mid-2028.
Your counterparty has to put up at least 1000 mana, and you can't bet more than your net worth.
This poll is based on Eliezer Yudkowsky's 150-1 bet, as covered in this market:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026?
2% chance
Will a new explanation for the Tic Tac UAP emerge before September 1, 2025?
5% chance
By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?
11% chance
Will it be proven that MH370 was teleported by UFOs before 2030?
2% chance
Would any of these be the accepted explanation for one of the pentagon UFO videos / david grusch's claims by 2028?
Will the US Government make a show of declassifying everything on UFOs / UAPs before 2030
39% chance
Will the hypothetical Planet 9 be discovered before 2028?
20% chance
Will UFOs be recognized as a culture-bound illness/mass hysteria before 2050?
37% chance
Will Salvatore Pais' "UFO" patent be publicly demonstrated before 2030?
15% chance