My Manifold survey will include some questions about demographics, including one about the respondents' gender (the same question as the one on Pat's survey) and one about their race. Will at least 80 percent of respondents who answer both questions say that they are white males? Note that the race question will use checkboxes (select all that apply), so some people may select white and another race - they will still be counted towards this maket.
Note: This requires 80% to say that they are white AND male, not just 80% white and 80% male.
See Plasma's Manifold Survey for other questions about the survey.
Edit: The survey is officially out! You can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9
Related questions
There are at least 34 traders on this market who haven't taken it yet. There's still some quick, free liquidity left for anyone who does it today:
(Only one more response is needed for the above market to resolve YES.)
@JosephNoonan I would but I don't have any mana. If someone lent me 10k rq I'd sop up the liquidity and return 10k + half of the profit
The survey is out, you can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9
@a2bb if the question is the same as in Pat's survey trans men count towards male.
@a2bb No, this is based on the number of people who answer that they are male when asked their gender.
Already had a feeling this would be NO, but Pat's results strongly suggest this will be a NO. On his survey, the number of males was a lot less than 80%, and of course, the white males will be even less.
@JosephNoonan oh, wait, the thing u showed there, that/s just his survey? also where did u post the survey? i didn't get to answer
@higherLEVELING I haven't run my survey yet. I'll post it in the comments when I do
@JosephNoonan The female percentage is probably inflated, see clickbaity markets like
@Conflux Even if those markets inflated the percentage, it would have to be a lot lower on my survey for this one to resolve YES.
@Conflux Though if you think the numbers will be more inflated on Pat's than mine, you can bet on it here:
https://manifold.markets/Adam/is-manifold-mostly-a-bunch-of-white
new shameless derivative market just dropped!
Assuming independence, this requires about 90% each (in order to get 80% answering both that way.)
You have some real people with other races, you have real females. Once you add in Lizardman's constant, plus other males sincerely claiming to be female, this resolves NO.
I'm looking at the Astral Codex Ten 2022 survey results which say 87.6% White and also about 87.8% male.
I'm assuming these are fairly representative of the Manifold demographics
I'm also assuming these are uncorrelated, and also assuming I'm not absolutely horrendous at math and botched my calculations, which gives ACX a 77% white guy ratio.
There's some room for noise and I do think that men are more likely to gamble than women based on a quick though not extensive google.
All this puts my belief that Manifold is basically just on that 80% line so I'm gonna be placing my bets toward the 50% chance
@higherLEVELING I have no idea how many people will take it. I have a bunch of markets about it and will post about it on the Manifold Discord when it comes out.
@JosephNoonan are you going to end up double counting? If they answer ur survey, chance that they do 1 would increase for them to answer both. Also, is going to be multiple choice or fill in the blank? What are the options for the question
Sorry read the description.
If they dont put down white, say they put serbian. R they counted as white
@higherLEVELING It's checkboxes, so I will just go by whether they checked the "White" box. If they didn't, then presumably it means they don't consider themselves white.
@higherLEVELING The question, as it appears currently, is:
How would you describe your race?
Some of these categories overlap, and multiple may apply to you regardless. Choose all options that you believe apply to you.
Pacific Islander
Other
Black
Native American
Asian
Hispanic
White
Middle Eastern
The options appear in a randomized order for each respondent. These are not 100% finalized, though, I was planning on asking for some feedback before finalizing the poll on what categories I should include.
@JosephNoonan I'm not an expert but it's a good spread. still, doesn't matter re: this question since Manifold has to be 90+% white AND 90+% male for this to resolve YES, and it's simply not
@JosephNoonan Oh okay. how close to this do you think? can you ask what country they have citizenship in or what country they were born in also?
@Stralor barring like only 10 responses, but like there'll be a lot more than that
@higherLEVELING it's roughly accurate, based on my poll data. there's a few percent misplaced here or there but I imagine Joseph's survey will reach a similar audience to mine
@higherLEVELING I could make that a question as well, but it won't have any bearing on this one.
@higherLEVELING Might be hard to analyze that data, though. I'd either have to make every single country on Earth an option or use free response and individually sort through the responses.
@JosephNoonan a free response since it's a throwaway bonus question
Oh I see. Ya it might too much work
@JosephNoonan Maybe you should split out the race question into a race/ethnicity one, and move Hispanic to ethnicity. At least that's how I usually see the question structured in the US.
@zzlk I thought about this, but I think having them as separate options on the race question seems more faithful to how people actually think about race, e.g. many Hispanic people don't consider themselves white. The intent of the options as currently structured is to let people decide for themselves what racial categories they belong to, rather than saying that all Hispanic people are white, regardless of whether they think of themselves as white or not. This is also why I included Middle Eastern as a separate option, even though the U.S. government considers that to be a subcategory of white.
