Is Manifold just a bunch of white guys?
140
closes Oct 8
18%
chance

My Manifold survey will include some questions about demographics, including one about the respondents' gender (the same question as the one on Pat's survey) and one about their race. Will at least 80 percent of respondents who answer both questions say that they are white males? Note that the race question will use checkboxes (select all that apply), so some people may select white and another race - they will still be counted towards this maket.

Note: This requires 80% to say that they are white AND male, not just 80% white and 80% male.

See Plasma's Manifold Survey for other questions about the survey.

Edit: The survey is officially out! You can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Is Manifold mostly a bunch of white guys?
Adam avatarAdam
65% chance
How furry is Manifold?
Which Manifold user isn't Trustworthy.ish but should be?
How criminal is Manifold?
Who in the manifold community deserves to be funded on manifund?
What is Manifold's favorite YouTube channel?
What is Manifold's favorite print comic?
How introverted is Manifold?
What is Manifold's favorite play?
What is Manifold's favorite book?
What is Manifold's favorite movie?
Where is Manifold on the Kinsey scale?
What is Manifold's favorite poem?
What is Manifold's favorite short story?
What is Manifold's favorite TV show?
What is Manifold's favorite board game?
What is Manifold's favorite song?
What is Manifold's favorite role-playing game?
What is Manifold's Big Five personality type?
What is Manifold's favorite podcast?
Sort by:
JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts NO

There are at least 34 traders on this market who haven't taken it yet. There's still some quick, free liquidity left for anyone who does it today:

(Only one more response is needed for the above market to resolve YES.)

1 reply
jeremiahsamroo avatar
Jeremiahpredicts NO

@JosephNoonan I would but I don't have any mana. If someone lent me 10k rq I'd sop up the liquidity and return 10k + half of the profit

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts NO

The survey is out, you can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9

a2bb avatar

Do trans-women count as male?

2 replies
33cb avatar
Александр Мельниковpredicts YES

@a2bb if the question is the same as in Pat's survey trans men count towards male.

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts NO

@a2bb No, this is based on the number of people who answer that they are male when asked their gender.

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'bought Ṁ100 of NO

Already had a feeling this would be NO, but Pat's results strongly suggest this will be a NO. On his survey, the number of males was a lot less than 80%, and of course, the white males will be even less.

9 replies
DimensionSeven avatar
Dimension Sevenpredicts YES

@JosephNoonan I call bullshit

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGbought Ṁ100 of NO

@JosephNoonan what about race

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts NO

@higherLEVELING Pat's survey didn't have a question about race.

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGpredicts NO

@JosephNoonan oh, wait, the thing u showed there, that/s just his survey? also where did u post the survey? i didn't get to answer

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts NO

@higherLEVELING I haven't run my survey yet. I'll post it in the comments when I do

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGpredicts NO

@JosephNoonan Ooh okay my bad. cool

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicts NO

@JosephNoonan The female percentage is probably inflated, see clickbaity markets like

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts NO

@Conflux Even if those markets inflated the percentage, it would have to be a lot lower on my survey for this one to resolve YES.

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts NO

@Conflux Though if you think the numbers will be more inflated on Pat's than mine, you can bet on it here:

DavidBolin avatar
David Bolinbought Ṁ100 of NO

Assuming independence, this requires about 90% each (in order to get 80% answering both that way.)

You have some real people with other races, you have real females. Once you add in Lizardman's constant, plus other males sincerely claiming to be female, this resolves NO.

Polytope avatar
Polytopebought Ṁ10 of YES

I'm looking at the Astral Codex Ten 2022 survey results which say 87.6% White and also about 87.8% male.

I'm assuming these are fairly representative of the Manifold demographics

I'm also assuming these are uncorrelated, and also assuming I'm not absolutely horrendous at math and botched my calculations, which gives ACX a 77% white guy ratio.

There's some room for noise and I do think that men are more likely to gamble than women based on a quick though not extensive google.

All this puts my belief that Manifold is basically just on that 80% line so I'm gonna be placing my bets toward the 50% chance

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELING

how many people are u giving this survey to?

15 replies
JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'

@higherLEVELING I have no idea how many people will take it. I have a bunch of markets about it and will post about it on the Manifold Discord when it comes out.

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELING

@JosephNoonan are you going to end up double counting? If they answer ur survey, chance that they do 1 would increase for them to answer both. Also, is going to be multiple choice or fill in the blank? What are the options for the question

Sorry read the description.

If they dont put down white, say they put serbian. R they counted as white

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'

@higherLEVELING It's checkboxes, so I will just go by whether they checked the "White" box. If they didn't, then presumably it means they don't consider themselves white.

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELING

@JosephNoonan ok but what are the options

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'

@higherLEVELING The question, as it appears currently, is:

How would you describe your race?

Some of these categories overlap, and multiple may apply to you regardless. Choose all options that you believe apply to you.

Pacific Islander

Other

Black

Native American

Asian

Hispanic

White

Middle Eastern

The options appear in a randomized order for each respondent. These are not 100% finalized, though, I was planning on asking for some feedback before finalizing the poll on what categories I should include.

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴predicts NO

@JosephNoonan I'm not an expert but it's a good spread. still, doesn't matter re: this question since Manifold has to be 90+% white AND 90+% male for this to resolve YES, and it's simply not

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELING

@JosephNoonan Oh okay. how close to this do you think? can you ask what country they have citizenship in or what country they were born in also?

analytics.umami.is/share/ARwUIC9GWLNyowjq/Manifold Markets

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴predicts NO

@Stralor barring like only 10 responses, but like there'll be a lot more than that

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴predicts NO

@higherLEVELING it's roughly accurate, based on my poll data. there's a few percent misplaced here or there but I imagine Joseph's survey will reach a similar audience to mine

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'

@higherLEVELING I could make that a question as well, but it won't have any bearing on this one.

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELING

@JosephNoonan thats cool. I just wanna see if it matches up w the ip data

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'

@higherLEVELING Might be hard to analyze that data, though. I'd either have to make every single country on Earth an option or use free response and individually sort through the responses.

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELING

@JosephNoonan a free response since it's a throwaway bonus question

Oh I see. Ya it might too much work

zzlk avatar
ayylmaopredicts YES

@JosephNoonan Maybe you should split out the race question into a race/ethnicity one, and move Hispanic to ethnicity. At least that's how I usually see the question structured in the US.

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'

@zzlk I thought about this, but I think having them as separate options on the race question seems more faithful to how people actually think about race, e.g. many Hispanic people don't consider themselves white. The intent of the options as currently structured is to let people decide for themselves what racial categories they belong to, rather than saying that all Hispanic people are white, regardless of whether they think of themselves as white or not. This is also why I included Middle Eastern as a separate option, even though the U.S. government considers that to be a subcategory of white.