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150
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resolved Oct 9
Resolved
NO

My Manifold survey will include some questions about demographics, including one about the respondents' gender (the same question as the one on Pat's survey) and one about their race. Will at least 80 percent of respondents who answer both questions say that they are white males? Note that the race question will use checkboxes (select all that apply), so some people may select white and another race - they will still be counted towards this maket.

Note: This requires 80% to say that they are white AND male, not just 80% white and 80% male.

See Plasma's Manifold Survey for other questions about the survey.

Edit: The survey is officially out! You can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9

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predicted NO

@JosephNoonan Still ludicrously high.

predicted NO

@evergreenemily Doesn't seem that high. I wouldn't be surprised if the university course I'm sitting in right now had a higher percentage.

predicted NO

@JustifieduseofFallibilism I mean, it's pretty absurd compared to the population of the U.S. (about 38% white men), the Bay Area (19.6%), San Fran (25.5%), Denver (34.5%), Seattle (34.75%)...even Maine is only about 47% white men.

predicted NO

@evergreenemily although only 56% of people are from North America and the other half is mostly Europe.

Buy yeah it's still quite extreme, only group there are less of than black people are republicans (3 vs 2). XD

predicted NO

It's consistent with the demographics of every other thing that's similar to manifold

predicted NO

@JustifieduseofFallibilism While that's true, keep in mind that even if Europe is 95% white (and I don't think it is at this point,) only about 47.5% of Europeans would be white men.

@jacksonpolack I'd be interested to see the demographics of other prediction markets. If they're all this demographically imbalanced, then IMO that has serious implications for the accuracy of prediction markets in general, and even more serious implications for their long-term success.

predicted NO

I'm pretty confident others are going to the same. Metaculus, polymarket, kalshi, predictit, it's going to be a mix between us and 'good poker players' and 'amateur stock traders' and 'professional traders' and 'people who are way too into politics' which are all heavily male

predicted NO

I don't think there are noticeable implications for accuracy. 60% isn't that much. If you have a market on two topics, A and B, and 4 in 5 participants only know about A and one only knows about B, the 4 participants will realize they're getting drained on B and not participate, because it's a market, not a poll. So B will be slightly less accurate just because there are fewer B traders, but not that much less accurate in practice because it's more like there are 10k B traders and 50k A traders.

predicted NO

@jacksonpolack Fair point - I think the accuracy issue does become less bad the more people the prediction market attracts. If Manifold has 1,200 engaged users, then there's still about 150 engaged women on the site (though I suspect that women may be less engaged with the site - there's fewer of us, so I suspect many of us end up losing interest because we can't find many of our peers.)

(Also, at this point the racial imbalance on Manifold is still pretty bad, enough to continue to throw off market accuracy I think - based on the survey, there's probably only about 45 engaged users who are Latino and about 20 who are Black. I have a suspicion that Manifold having a white:Black ratio of 45:1 probably has something to do with the amount of "are Black people genetically inferior?" questions on the site. I definitely would not feel comfortable here if I were Black.)

@evergreenemily I don't necessarily buy the angle that different races or genders innately have access to different information or reasoning. It definitely comes with racist or sexist implications. Diversity is good for diversity's sake, and the lack thereof is a signal that maybe there are some underlying biases driving exclusivity. But I feel that this particular justification is an excuse for avoiding arguing those two points, and maybe to appeal to those who refuse to accept them. I don't think people who say that are fully considering what they are implying (ie. that white men potentially have a better portion of the available information/reasoning, which justifies their position in society).

I'm open to disagreement, of course.

I will say that banning edgy/insensitive questions or discussions would decrease the white male population by at least one; I wouldn't be comfortable even saying the above on any other social media site that I have participated in, and the fact that this community is capable of engaging with that content rationally without resorting to insults and rhetoric may be the main reason I'm here. Or it's the gambling addiction.

predicted NO

@evergreenemily I think it will in general become more accurate with more engaged users, though there are some counterexamples to that when the imbalance becomes too large. For example, on LK-99, the sheer quantity of YES bettors overwhelmed the NO bettors, who didn't have enough mana to push the market down to a more reasonable price.

@evergreenemily I agree that black people are uncommon on Manifold, but I doubt the reason is because of neoreactionaries on Manifold

My vibe from attending manifest is that the intersection of white and male was only 60% of the crowd

predicted NO

@JonathanRay That appears to be the consensus:

predicted NO

Reminder for everyone trading on this market to actually take the survey: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9

Currently, the number of traders here is the exact amount needed for this market to resolve YES: /JosephNoonan/will-my-manifold-survey-get-more-re

predicted NO

@JosephNoonan Additional reminder that everyone who chooses to take the survey is an asian woman and should answer accordingly. (You were born in poverty in Thailand, and you overcame much to get to where you are today. Now is not the time to bury the truth.)

predicted NO

@JosephNoonan In all seriousness, I did leave the race/gender question blank for this reason. In the interest of your data integrity, I'm the black pill/democrat/prOhio (Ionah)/Ball pit peeing/superintelligence resurrectionist. Hopefully that's enough to find me. This is not legally a response to Plasma Ballin''s survey.

predicted NO

@JosephNoonan yep I should definitely take the survey. or have taken the survey. you'll never find me!!! 😇 /JosephNoonan/will-i-be-able-to-guess-which-respo

predicted NO

There are at least 34 traders on this market who haven't taken it yet. There's still some quick, free liquidity left for anyone who does it today:

(Only one more response is needed for the above market to resolve YES.)

predicted NO

@JosephNoonan I would but I don't have any mana. If someone lent me 10k rq I'd sop up the liquidity and return 10k + half of the profit

predicted NO

The survey is out, you can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9

Do trans-women count as male?

predicted YES

@a2bb if the question is the same as in Pat's survey trans men count towards male.

predicted NO

@a2bb No, this is based on the number of people who answer that they are male when asked their gender.

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