What percentage of Manifold's users are white men, according to Plasma's survey?
Basic
42
7.6k
resolved Oct 9
100%19%
More than 60%
·
10mo
1.3%
Less than 30%
·
10mo
1.4%
30% to 39.9%
·
10mo
31%
40% to 49.9%
·
10mo
47%
50% to 59.9%
·
10mo

This market resolves to the answer which contains the percentage of survey-takers who identify their race as "white" AND their gender as "male" in Plasma's Manifold survey.


Fine print

I will be relying on @JosephNoonan to provide me with the information I need to resolve this market - I trust them completely to provide me with accurate information.

"Male" here refers to anyone who identifies as a man*, so cisgender men and transgender men both count for the purpose of this market.

*or boy, in the case of young survey-takers.

"White" here does include Latino/Hispanic whites as well - anyone who identifies their race as "white" on the survey counts, regardless of their ethnicity. Mostly including this in the fine print because a lot of political data/analysis uses "non-Hispanic white" as a category, and I want to make it clear this market uses a broader definition.

If Plasma's Manifold survey has not been posted by the end of the year, I will extend the closing date. Once Plasma posts the survey, I'll be setting the closing date of this market to the date on which the survey stops accepting responses.

Answers like "30% to 39.9%" really mean "any percentage greater than or equal to 30% but less than 40%." The percentage being 39.95% would still cause "30% to 39.9%" to resolve YES. I think this is clear enough already from the format of the answers, but wanted to clarify further just to be sure.

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,185
2Ṁ483
3Ṁ246
4Ṁ104
5Ṁ68
Sort by:

Resolves to more than 60% - it was 67%, according to Plasma's Substack post.

Hell website. Hell website. Hell website.

@evergreenemily I didn't know you spoke German

@Frogswap Congrats, you made me learn a really funny language fact:

@evergreenemily why is it a "hell website"

@PeterBuyukliev This is the biggest gender disparity on any website I've frequented since Reddit. It is a problem.

@evergreenemily why is that surprising or a problem? Every nerdy niche hobby is overwhelmingly white/asian men.

Surprised to see so much YES on "More than 60%" - 67% of the responses to Pat's survey were men. For 60% of the responses to his survey to have been white men, men on Manifold would have to be 89.5% white. I highly doubt that's the case.

@evergreenemily (Obviously, this resolves based on a different survey - but I don't expect the gender ratio to be significantly different.)

@evergreenemily You highly doubt? Seems like a reasonable percentage.

@bingeworthy Anecdotal experience, but I've seen a lot of Asian and Asian-American users here. I don't think Manifold is more than about 75% white.

@evergreenemily Well, the 75% white part aged pretty well. Just turns out this site has an even worse gender imbalance than I expected.