What percentage of Manifold's users are white men, according to Plasma's survey?
closes Jan 1
Less than 30%
30% to 39.9%
40% to 49.9%
50% to 59.9%
More than 60%

This market resolves to the answer which contains the percentage of survey-takers who identify their race as "white" AND their gender as "male" in Plasma's Manifold survey.

Fine print

I will be relying on @JosephNoonan to provide me with the information I need to resolve this market - I trust them completely to provide me with accurate information.

"Male" here refers to anyone who identifies as a man*, so cisgender men and transgender men both count for the purpose of this market.

*or boy, in the case of young survey-takers.

"White" here does include Latino/Hispanic whites as well - anyone who identifies their race as "white" on the survey counts, regardless of their ethnicity. Mostly including this in the fine print because a lot of political data/analysis uses "non-Hispanic white" as a category, and I want to make it clear this market uses a broader definition.

If Plasma's Manifold survey has not been posted by the end of the year, I will extend the closing date. Once Plasma posts the survey, I'll be setting the closing date of this market to the date on which the survey stops accepting responses.

Answers like "30% to 39.9%" really mean "any percentage greater than or equal to 30% but less than 40%." The percentage being 39.95% would still cause "30% to 39.9%" to resolve YES. I think this is clear enough already from the format of the answers, but wanted to clarify further just to be sure.

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evergreenemily avatar
evergreenbought Ṁ3 of More than 60% NO

Surprised to see so much YES on "More than 60%" - 67% of the responses to Pat's survey were men. For 60% of the responses to his survey to have been white men, men on Manifold would have to be 89.5% white. I highly doubt that's the case.

1 reply
evergreenemily avatar

@evergreenemily (Obviously, this resolves based on a different survey - but I don't expect the gender ratio to be significantly different.)