Will my Manifold survey get more responses than Pat's?

#Manifold Users #Manifold Surveys #Plasma's Manifold survey #Pat's Manifold Survey

131

Ṁ8.7k

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resolved Sep 30

Resolved

YES

ALL

Pat's Manifold Survey got a total of 142 responses after being open for a month. I will keep mine open for a month as well, so neither survey will have the time advantage. This market will resolve YES if I get at least 143 responses before I stop accepting responses, which will be shortly after all my Manifold survey markets close.

You can take my survey here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9

And see other markets related to it in the Plasma's Manifold Survey group.

Insider trading policy: Although I won't look at any of the responses themselves until the survey closes, I may check on the number of responses periodically. I will probably give some updates to traders when I check it, and the number has passed some milestone.

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7 Comments

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predicted YES

@JosephNoonan congrats! we're doing good work getting good data 💪

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

It's now tied with Pat's survey, so one more response will cause it to resolve YES.

bought Ṁ200 of YES

bought Ṁ100 of YES

It's only behind by five responses.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

There are 60 responses so far!

I think this will mostly be determined by a balance of two factors:

I spent a long time building up anticipation for my survey before releasing it by making markets about it, whereas Pat didn't make the markets until the survey was released.
My survey is longer than Pat's.

Point 1 will help me get more responses, but Point 2 could prevent some people from responding.

I suppose if there's a change in the number of active users of the site, that might also affect it, though I'm not sure if it has increased or decreased. Maybe a slight decrease as some of the people who joined for LK-99 leave.