Will I be able to guess which response to my survey was @Stralor?
JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'
3
closes Oct 8
52%
chance

Conditional on @Stralor taking my survey, will I be able to guess which response was his? I will use some uniquely identifying part of my chosen response, like an answer to a free response question, to state my guess.

See also: /JosephNoonan/will-stralor-be-able-to-guess-which

See Plasma's Manifold Survey for other questions about the survey.

The survey is officially out! You can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

FREE-RESPONSE (almost) FREE-FOR-ALL: Which self-resolving statements will be known at close?
JosephNoonan avatarPlasma Ballin'
Will @JosephNoonan be able to tell which survey response was mine?
evergreenemily avatarevergreen
66% chance
Will @JosephNoonan correctly guess which survey response is mine?
Conflux avatarConflux
70% chance
How many options will pay out in the free response (almost) free for all?
Imhotep avatarImhotep
Who will have the most profit in the free response (almost) free-for-all?
JosephNoonan avatarPlasma Ballin'
How many options will pay out in the free response (almost) free for all?
Imhotep avatarImhotep
Will the first option submitted in a free response question start out at <50% before the end of October?
JosephNoonan avatarPlasma Ballin'
32% chance
Do you get anything for creating the winning answer on a free response question?
f avatarRealLies
Ṁ0bounty
Will DALL-E 3 correctly respond to prompt 3 from the Scott Aaronson/Gary Marcus/Earnest Davis paper?
IsaacKing avatarIsaac
61% chance
Will DALL-E 3 correctly respond to prompt 1 from the Scott Aaronson/Gary Marcus/Earnest Davis paper?
IsaacKing avatarIsaac
55% chance
What string, if submitted as a response choice below, would a much wiser version of me most appreciate being submitted?
AaronBergman avatarAaron Bergman
In the ACX 2023 prediction contest, will anyone who filled out all questions get into the top 5% of entrants?
IsaacKing avatarIsaac
84% chance
Will a winner of ACX prediction contest (blind mode) be a minmaxer?
paleink avatarpaleink
11% chance
Will Manifold get a better Brier score than the mean answers of Blind Mode participants in the ACX 2023 prediction contest?
BoltonBailey avatarBolton Bailey
87% chance
Bonus questionWill all of questions in Shakeds list be posed and resolved
ItamarLevyOr avatarItamar Levy-Or
38% chance
Will a winner of ACX prediction contest (full mode) be a minmaxer?
paleink avatarpaleink
6% chance
How should I resolve Free Response Markets where no current answers are correct?
JoyVoid avatarjoy_void_joy
In the ACX 2023 prediction contest, will the average response among all entrants be within the top 10% of entrants if scored as an entrant itself?
IsaacKing avatarIsaac
37% chance
Will the mean answers get a better Brier score than the median answers of Blind Mode participants in the ACX 2023 prediction contest?
BoltonBailey avatarBolton Bailey
51% chance
Will Manifold get a better Brier score than the median answers of Blind Mode participants in the ACX 2023 prediction contest?
BoltonBailey avatarBolton Bailey
87% chance
3 Comments
3 Positions
3 Trades
Sort by:
JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'

The survey is officially out! You can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴bought Ṁ10 of NO

ahaha are you going to manifest? you might find deets out about me that will allow you to narrow it down, and I'm quite an outlier in some ways but we'll see. now I'll know to obfuscate how I write and when I tell you I took it, but I'll still take the survey honestly

1 reply
JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'

@Stralor I am not going to Manifest, as I am still in grad school and also in a different part of the country.