Will I be able to guess which response to my survey was @Stralor?
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resolved Oct 27
Resolved
NO

Conditional on @Stralor taking my survey, will I be able to guess which response was his? I will use some uniquely identifying part of my chosen response, like an answer to a free response question, to state my guess.

See also: /JosephNoonan/will-stralor-be-able-to-guess-which

See Plasma's Manifold Survey for other questions about the survey.

The survey is officially out! You can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9

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@Stralor Okay, I think I have figured it out. Was your answer to the AI alignment question, "If AI is smarter, it will choose the best option. Don't really see a problem with it"?

predicted NO

@JosephNoonan I don't remember exactly what I wrote there, but that more or less doesn't align with what I think, so No, Sorry, That's Not Me.

I'm super curious what signals you went off, though!

@Stralor The first thing I used was, "Did you take Pat's Manifold Survey prior to this one?" (though now that I think of it, I'm not actually completely sure that you took your own survey). I also used gender, not being a consequentialist, and the market types you created, which left me with 5 responses. I found that one of the five said Sedna was the best dwarf planet and it mostly lined up with what I expected for the other questions, so that was my guess. Though I was much less confident than the other two I guessed correctly.

predicted NO

@JosephNoonan I didn't take my own survey! Aha! But yeah Sedna 💪

predicted NO

@Stralor I didn't take my own because I didn't want to be an extreme outlier on the questions I wanted to ask and skew the dataset

@Stralor I should have thought to reconsider that one when I was having a hard time finding answers that all lined up.

predicted NO

@Stralor (I might not have said Sedna in the survey, but it's in the top 2 or 3)

predicted NO

so I didn't do so before to obfuscate timing but I can now confirm that I took the survey.

The survey is officially out! You can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9

bought Ṁ10 of NO

ahaha are you going to manifest? you might find deets out about me that will allow you to narrow it down, and I'm quite an outlier in some ways but we'll see. now I'll know to obfuscate how I write and when I tell you I took it, but I'll still take the survey honestly

@Stralor I am not going to Manifest, as I am still in grad school and also in a different part of the country.