Will Tsar Bomba be upstaged by 2100? | Manifold

Will Tsar Bomba be upstaged by 2100?

Basic

4

Ṁ71

2100

28%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Will a bomb be built which exceeds the 100 Megaton design yield of Tsar Bomba?

It does not need to be tested.

Note that the Tsar Bomba test yielded only ~50-58 megatons, half as much as designed, because to reduce fallout they did not include the U238 tamper that would have been fissioned by the fast fast neutrons from D-T fusion. We're going by the 100 megaton design yield instead.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

MIRV made Tsar Bomba obsolete. MIRV destroys a larger area with less fallout and less vulnerability to ABM defenses. And unless our understanding of physics is terrible, it's very unlikely that any better bomb paradigm than fission-fusion-fission will be discovered in that time frame.

Related questions

Will the world develop a bigger bomb by 2100?

Will an offensive nuclear detonation occur by 2080?

Will a nuclear bomb be detonated somewhere in the world before 2033?

Will a nuclear bomb be detonated in space by 2050?

Will any city get nuked before 2040?

Will an explosive at least one thousand times more powerful than the Tsar Bomba be developed before 2040?

Will a pure nuclear fusion bomb be developed before 2100?

Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?

Will any political official be blown up by a 19th century explosive before 2025?

Related questions

Will the world develop a bigger bomb by 2100?

Will an explosive at least one thousand times more powerful than the Tsar Bomba be developed before 2040?

Will an offensive nuclear detonation occur by 2080?

Will a pure nuclear fusion bomb be developed before 2100?

Will a nuclear bomb be detonated somewhere in the world before 2033?

Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030

Will a nuclear bomb be detonated in space by 2050?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?

Will any city get nuked before 2040?

Will any political official be blown up by a 19th century explosive before 2025?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules