Resolves yes if there is a state of war between Ukraine and Russia or Russian-backed separatists. Unless they have a permanent ceasefire and <10 fatalities per year, like Korea. Regardless of treaties, the war "ends" when there is a 1 year period with <10 combat fatalities.
https://betonit.substack.com/p/idealpolitik-for-martians
One reason this war will go long.
Amazed by how high people put this so have made my own market for when the invasion will end:
https://manifold.markets/Daniel_MC/when-will-the-russian-invasion-of-u?r=RGFuaWVsX01D
@jacksonpolack You wanted to take the other side of Jonathan's limit order at 26%?
I can resell at a modest profit, I'd be happy to get the instant turnaround.
1) any war, or this specific one?
2) is frozen conflict like between Koreas also counting as war?
3) is frozen conflict over specific territory like between Russia and Japan also counting as war?
4) is frozen conflict over specific territory and limited fighting like between China and India also counting as war?
@mariopasquato If the separatists are known to still be supported by Russia and the related violence kills 10+ people per year, yes