MANIFOLD
Will a publicly traded asteroid‑mining company exist by EOY 2050?
2
Ṁ101Ṁ191
2050
9%
chance

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if, at any point before December 31, 2050 at 11:59 PM ET, there exists at least one publicly traded company whose primary business model is asteroid mining.

A company qualifies if:

  1. It is publicly traded on a recognized stock exchange

    • Examples: NYSE, NASDAQ, NYSE American, TSX, LSE, Euronext, HKEX, etc.

    • OTC markets do not count as long as the company is publicly traded and has a ticker.

  2. Its primary stated business activity (in filings, prospectus, or official corporate materials) is the extraction of resources from asteroids.

    • “Primary” means the majority of its business plan, revenue model, or mission statement.

  3. It is actively pursuing asteroid‑mining operations, not merely mentioning it as a hypothetical future possibility.

What does not count

  • Companies whose main business is satellites, launch services, space tourism, or general space tech unless asteroid mining is explicitly their primary business.

  • Companies that mention asteroid mining as a long‑term aspiration but have no concrete plans.

  • Private companies (e.g., SpaceX) unless they become publicly traded.

  • SPACs that intend to merge with an asteroid‑mining company but have not completed the merger.

  • Companies that mine the Moon, Mars, or other celestial bodies — must be asteroids specifically.

Edge Cases

SPACs

A SPAC counts only after the merger closes and the combined company is publicly traded with asteroid mining as its primary business.

Reverse mergers

Counts if the resulting public company’s primary business becomes asteroid mining.

Companies that pivot

If a currently public company pivots to asteroid mining and makes it their primary business, it counts.

Delisted companies

If a qualifying company existed at any time before EOY 2050, even if later delisted, the market resolves YES.

Resolution Source

Resolution will be based on:

  • Official company filings (10‑K, S‑1, prospectus, etc.)

  • Company press releases

  • Major financial news outlets

  • Stock exchange listings

If ambiguity remains, I will use reasonable judgment based on the above sources.

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