[unlinked free response] How can Israel stop Hamas from controlling Gaza before 2030?
Basic
6
Ṁ1292030
89%
Long-term total occupation of Gaza by ground troops; overseeing new elections; enforcement of a ban on Hamas membership/speech/symbols/publications ala the denazification of Germany.
41%
Any policy
33%
Any policy not involving extensive ground troop occupation of Gaza
31%
Long-term refusal to supply food/water/energy
Each option describes a policy and resolves N/A if Israel does not implement the policy. The option resolves YES if Israel implements the policy and Hamas does not control Gaza in Jan 2030. Resolves NO if Israel implements the policy and Hamas still rules Gaza in Jan 2030. Multiple options can resolve YES. "Any policy" represents the unconditional probability of Hamas not controlling Gaza in Jan 2030.
Semicolons in the options represent AND.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
"Any policy" seems underpriced relative to https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-hamas-as-a-military-organizati
@JonathanRay Or not, they’re probably already maxed out on antisemitism and and recruiting kids to murder people
Related questions
Related questions
Will Israel declare they have successfully eradicated Hamas by the end of 2024?
42% chance
Will Israel occupy Gaza on a semi-permanent or permanent basis before 2025?
70% chance
Will Hamas still control Gaza at the end of 2024?
78% chance
Will Netanyahu's vision for Gaza be achieved by 2030?
30% chance
By 2025, will Israel claim that Hamas is no longer active in the Gaza Strip?
28% chance
Will Israel politically control Gaza after the 2023 Israel-Hamas war ends?
65% chance
Will Gaza be de facto controlled by Israel at the end of 2024?
14% chance
When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end?
Will Hamas control more than one square kilometer of contiguous territory in Gaza at the end of 2024?
30% chance
Will Hamas continue to exist as a military organization in Israel Palestine through 2030?
37% chance