Resolves yes if at any time before 2050 there are passable sex robots (i.e., that look and sound realistic enough to pass a turing test in-person).
This seems overpriced relative to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/before-2050-will-it-become-safe-and
Surely modifying sex of a living human has got to be easier than making one from scratch out of silicon or whatever sex bots would be made of.
@OnurcanYasar Laboratory analysis doesn’t count. But unassisted humans can’t easily tell the difference.
The market author might well say it is not what they intended, but the description given here is literally impossible, because something that can pass a Turing Test in person does not have behavior compatible with being a sex robot; if it acts like a sex robot, it is not a person, and if it is a person, it is not a sex robot.
To be more plain, if it can pass a Turing Test in person, no one would pay for it as a sex robot, since they would not get what they wanted to pay for.