Passable sex robots before 2050?
Basic
30
1.9k
2050
61%
chance

Resolves yes if at any time before 2050 there are passable sex robots (i.e., that look and sound realistic enough to pass a turing test in-person).

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The market author might well say it is not what they intended, but the description given here is literally impossible, because something that can pass a Turing Test in person does not have behavior compatible with being a sex robot; if it acts like a sex robot, it is not a person, and if it is a person, it is not a sex robot.

To be more plain, if it can pass a Turing Test in person, no one would pay for it as a sex robot, since they would not get what they wanted to pay for.

so in the general population p(female you just met really wants to bang you) might be low enough to make that suspicious in and of itself, but I mean passing a Turing test in all other respects.

Passing a turing test in-person sounds like a very high bar.