Mastodon will be more than 1% as big as Twitter in 2030
Plus
12
Ṁ2722030
48%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Active users in Jan 2030
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Clarification on Mastodon - are we talking just mastodon.social here, or the whole fediverse, or what?
@Lorxus The whole fediverse. Monthly active users. Data source here: https://fediverse.observer/stats
Shows 1.4 million monthly active users in the fediverse in april, without any deduplication of multiple accounts that belong to the same person.
For twitter I see various estimates from 300-450 million. Twitter's official stats are deduplicated monetizable daily active users (mDAU) which are only 200-230 million. If I can't get a reliable estimate of montly active users in 2030 I'll multiply mDAU by 1.6
Related questions
Related questions
Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?
16% chance
Will I be on Mastodon by the end of 2024?
25% chance
Will Misskey Significantly Gain on Mastodon by end of 2024?
44% chance
Will Twitter collapse by the end of 2030?
35% chance
Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030
28% chance
Will Twitter have more users than Meta Threads in December 2025?
83% chance
Will Twitter have at least 400 million monthly active users in 2030?
59% chance
Will Bluesky have more active users than Mastodon by the end of 2025?
69% chance
Will Twitter/X be valued at over 100 billion before 2040?
59% chance
Will some form of decentralized social media have at least 5% global user share by 2030?
51% chance