Mastodon will be more than 1% as big as Twitter in 2030
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12
Ṁ272
2030
48%
chance

Active users in Jan 2030

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Ṁ1,000
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predicts YES

Clarification on Mastodon - are we talking just mastodon.social here, or the whole fediverse, or what?

predicts NO

@Lorxus The whole fediverse. Monthly active users. Data source here: https://fediverse.observer/stats

Shows 1.4 million monthly active users in the fediverse in april, without any deduplication of multiple accounts that belong to the same person.
For twitter I see various estimates from 300-450 million. Twitter's official stats are deduplicated monetizable daily active users (mDAU) which are only 200-230 million. If I can't get a reliable estimate of montly active users in 2030 I'll multiply mDAU by 1.6

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