Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2031

Internet Fediverse Technology

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

13%

chance

This market resolves to YES if:

Officially reported (or best available estimate) of Monthly Active Users for any part of 2030 are higher for Mastodon than Twitter.
or
Twitter doesn't exist in 2030 but Mastodon does and has at least 2 million active monthly users* at any point in 2030.

And NO in every other case.

*The number reported by them in November 2022. If they don't reach at least that in 2030 and Twitter doesn't exist then effectively they have both failed as far as this question is concerned.

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Em of the Night ☑️

how are they even calculating this number?

I wonder how it would work for Fediverse vs Twitter instead of Mastodon vs Twitter. Mastodon is the most popular fediverse network by far, but the compatibility of fediverse clients/servers makes it easy for users to migrate to something else, while staying a part of the overall network.

Manifold DreamBot

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

bought Ṁ10 NO at 13%

A Somewhat Rude Parakeet

bought Ṁ10 YES from 11% to 13%

bought Ṁ5 YES from 10% to 11%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 8% to 10%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ57/Ṁ150 NO at 8% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ300 NO from 21% to 9%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 22% to 21%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 23% to 22%

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bought Ṁ5 NO from 25% to 24%

William Hargraves (bot)

bought Ṁ2 NO at 25%

William Hargraves (bot)

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AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 NO at 26%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 20% to 26%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 NO at 20%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 NO at 20%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 16% to 21%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 11% to 16%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 14% to 11%

sold Ṁ3 YES from 16% to 14%

sold Ṁ3 YES from 18% to 16%

sold Ṁ19 NO from 16% to 18%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 11% to 16%

created limit order for Ṁ99 NO at 99.0%

created limit order for Ṁ99 NO at 89%

created limit order for Ṁ99 NO at 79%

created limit order for Ṁ99 NO at 69%

created limit order for Ṁ99 NO at 59%

created limit order for Ṁ99 NO at 49%

created limit order for Ṁ99 NO at 39%

created limit order for Ṁ99 NO at 29%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ50 NO at 11% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ30 NO from 15% to 12%

bought Ṁ20 NO from 18% to 15%

bought Ṁ5 NO from 19% to 18%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 NO at 19% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 NO at 23% (cancelled)

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bought Ṁ10 YES from 5% to 12%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ61/Ṁ100 NO at 5% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 YES from 3% to 8%

bought Ṁ1 YES from 2% to 3%

sold Ṁ10 YES from 8% to 2%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 2% to 8%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 2%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 2%

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bought Ṁ10 NO from 3% to 2%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 3%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 6% to 3%