Is Trump more likely to spend 1 night in jail or 1 day as President in the Oval Office again?
Oval Office

And since technically there is no constitutional requirement that an elected President "not be in jail", this question will resolve to which option occurs first by January 20th, 2025.

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How does this question get resolved?

@GustavoLacerda Whichever happens first by January 20th, 2025.

So if Trump spends one night in jail before then it will resolve to jail. Otherwise by January 20th he will have either been elected President and spent the day in the Oval Office or neither would have happened.

@JonathanBoswell This isn't about how likely each event is, it's just about what happens. It resolving one way or the other doesn't give a final answer to what the probability was.

@WXTJ Well probabilities meet reality at some point 😊 The “more likely” outcome is the one that occurs. So at some point in the future there is a 100% chance that 1 of the options will occur. And until then - as people bet - we can view the predicted probabilities.

@JonathanBoswell Hey so this is only me being super pedantic and isn't at all actually important - not deep at all, just a different use of words. But an outcome being the one that occurs does not mean it was the most likely. Eg when rolling dice, double 6s is not the most likely outcome at any point but still happens. Unlikely things happen, it doesn't stop them being unlikely.

Y'all are actually right but you can see the title as asking the question "what do y'all think" rather than the normal "this market bets on this statement". This way the word "likely" in the title isn't wrong, and the actual criteria are clarified in the description.



@JoshuaWilkes oh I see, whichever comes first

@JoshuaWilkes Correct👍

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