I’m just a curious guy with zero expertise related to this subject.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

“Nuclear Weapon”:

Both “normal” and tactical nukes count. Dirty bombs do not count. Bombing a nuclear plant or similar, like Zaporizhzhia, does not count. RESOLUTION: at least 2 major news sources report a weapon is detonated that matches my criteria here.

“Offensively”:

An actor must cause damage. Any of the following happening with 24 hrs as a direct result of detonation count as “damage”:

• at least one death

• at least one building destroyed without owner’s consent

• at least one vehicle destroyed without owner’s consent.

An actor damaging themself, EVEN ACCIDENTALLY, will count. A test that damages nothing will not count. A test that damages an actor or their neighbor will count. To maintain my sanity, I’ll assume all future tests to be damage-less unless I hear otherwise. RESOLUTION: at least 2 major news sources report “damage” as matches my criteria here.

State vs. Non-State:

If a single country claims responsibility, market will resolve to them. If multiple countries claim responsibility, market will resolve to N/A. If no state claims responsibility AND some non-state actor (rogue faction within gov’t, terrorist group, etc) claims responsibility, market will resolve to “non-state actor”. I’ll give a week or so after detonation for actors to make their claims. If no one claims responsibility, after 1 month I’ll use my best judgement based on available data to guess.

2035:

If the market stays unresolved until then, it will resolve to N/A. Good luck to everyone on a peaceful decade.