Unusual Whales writes:
BREAKING: Norway is bracing for Trump's reaction if he does not win Nobel peace prize, stating that "US president may impose tariffs, demand higher Nato contributions or even declare Norway an enemy," per the Guardian
(https://bsky.app/profile/unusualwhales.bsky.social/post/3m2sinsjh7c2j)
Will any of these three things, or a similar event happen? Resolves YES if in my subjective judgement Trump does something like this. I will look at criteria like:
Is the media reporting on it as Trump retaliating against Norway?
Does Trump state it's about the peace prize?
Does the act seem otherwise unmotivated or unlikely to have happened within its timeframe without the motive of not receiving the peace prize?
EDIT: It's already visible in the question data but just to make it explicit if a month passes (we reach November 9) with nothing that looks like retaliation from Trump I resolve NO.
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Resolution method:
Searched Google for "Norway Trump" and "us norway relations", didn't see anything on the news tab.
Asked ChatGPT:
Donald Trump did not win the Nobel Peace Prize. Many commentators have worried that he will retaliate against Norway for being snubbed. It has now been a month since he did not win. Did Trump retaliate?
It replied:
Short answer: no.
As of today (Nov 10, 2025), there’s no public record of the White House announcing new, Norway-specific punitive measures because of the Nobel Peace Prize decision. The administration blasted the committee after the Oct 10 announcement, and coverage at the time speculated about possible retaliation, but no concrete follow-through has been reported since. ([The Guardian][1])
Note that U.S. tariffs on Norwegian goods were already in place earlier this year (spring/summer) and Norway has been trying to negotiate those—so far that’s pre-existing trade policy, not a post-Nobel reprisal. ([reuters.com][2])
[1]: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/10/trump-nobel-peace-prize-reaction?utm_source=chatgpt.com "White House slams Trump's perceived Nobel peace prize snub as 'politics over peace'"
[2]: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/norway-seeks-negotiate-with-us-over-tariffs-prime-minister-says-2025-04-03/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Norway seeks to negotiate with US over tariffs, P
M says"
Which fits with my evaluation.
Whoops, didn't see this one already exists. Oh well.
https://manifold.markets/Balasar/trump-retaliates-against-norway-if?r=Sm9obkRhdmlkUHJlc3NtYW4