Will the 2022 Loan Forgiveness hold up in court?
72
445
แน€1.1K
resolved Jul 1
Resolved
NO

Will the 2022 Loan Forgiveness hold up in court?

It must hold up as written and without major amendment of entitlement. Minor rule changes, such as being able to opt-out of receiving forgiveness does not materially affect the quantity of loan forgiveness, whereas creating stricter or looser means-testing does.

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predicted NO

The oral argument found here: https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/audio/2022/22-506

Really worth listening to. The counsel convinced me!

sold แน€200 of NO

@JohnBuridan It's really interesting, thanks for sharing it here!

Based on my interpretation, it seems like the three liberal justices and Justice Barrett don't think the states having standing to bring the case or that the executive branch has overstepped it's legislative limits and Justice Kavanaugh doesn't think that the executive branch has overstepped it's legislative limits. I believe the Court will reject the states' arguments.

predicted NO
predicted NO

@JohnBuridan MOHELA claims standing. https://www.mohela.com/

@JohnBuridan litigants found to not have standing.

predicted NO

@Treldman Thanks!

predicted YES
bought แน€50 of YES

High risk the creator rugs and resolves N/A given he bet this down to 10% in huge size (presumably any dismissal and forgiveness occurring is YES, not N/A)

predicted NO

@Gigacasting I do say it has to hold up as written on White House website on August 25.

bought แน€67 of NO

@JohnBuridan, strictly speaking this has already failed. In response to one of the early lawsuits, the Biden administration changed the program to make sure it had an opt-out provision. So it can't hold up as it existed on August 25.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/09/student-loan-relief-lawsuit-biden-opt-out.html

https://pacificlegal.org/yale-notice-comment-bidens-student-debt-cancellation-the-perils-of-policy-without-procedure/

"Within days, the agency quietly changed the website to say that borrowers could โ€œopt outโ€ of the programโ€”in an apparent effort to moot our challenge (and leading to our amended complaint)."

Congrats this will be our first featured market! :P

bought แน€100 of YES

@DavidChee I thought the goal was to pick markets that will resolve that day?

@MartinRandall I think that was one initial option. What is currently in place though is we can choose a few markets that get pinned to the tip of the trending tab. So we will probably just pin markets that have wide appeal and are related to current events/are new/are about to end..

predicted YES

Say what you will about the SCOTUS, you didnโ€™t declare war on handouts to the professional managerial class; and the statute is plain as day about โ€œnational emergencyโ€ allowing this.

(notice home prices skyrocketing,

inflation, as a result ofโ€”govt policyโ€”but stemming from Covid, certainly meets the statuteโ€™s criteria)

Whether there should be any govt support of student loans at all (almost certainly not, economically, but itโ€™s all a handout to make the system seem โ€œfairโ€), and whether itโ€™s absurd to hand out money to college grads to buy votes, the justices wonโ€™t go near this.

Why would it not?

@Treldman Moreover, who would sue and have standing?

bought แน€200 of NO

@Treldman I'm not sure. Could anyone who can document that they chose a less expensive college option for debt based reasons, or who chose not to go to college, or joined the military, have standing? Could a state which took fiscal action based upon student debt obligations have standing? Perhaps a sucker... er, I mean person, who paid of their debt during the pause have standing?

@JohnBuridan None of those groups would have standing. You cannot sue the government just because you're mad at a policy you're not affected by.

@Treldman Right. I think a future administration could try to undo it, but that would be insane politically.

@Treldman the lenders could sue

@Sinclair the federal government is the lender

@Treldman The American taxpayers are the lender.

@Treldman I mean, that interpretation probably wouldn't hold up in court, but it's philosophically true. Forgiving student debt = shifting that debt to all American taxpayers instead of just the borrowers.

@MattP SCOTUS has already ruled before that aggrieved taxpayers generally don't have standing on matters that don't affect them:

"Generally, a federal taxpayer's interest in seeing that Treasury funds are spent in accordance with the Constitution is too attenuated to give rise to the kind of redressable 'personal injury' required for Article III standing."

-Samuel Alito in Hein v Freedom From Religion Foundation