Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the date Mojtaba Khamenei is first clearly identifiable in a video recording released by a reputable news organization, official government channel, or verifiable public social media account after April 23, 2026. The video must clearly show his face as well as enough context to clearly determine the date the video was taken. That date must have been within two weeks of the date of video release to qualify.

The market will resolve to the date of release of video, not of the date the recording was taken.

Deepfakes or AI generated videos will not count. Cardboard cutouts will not count.

Background

Mojtaba Khamenei is the second son of Ali Khamenei, the previous Supreme Leader of Iran. While he is a significant political figure within the Iranian establishment and is often discussed in the context of succession, he maintains a relatively low public profile compared to other high-ranking officials.

There have been rumors of Mojtaba's own injury in the strike that killed his father, but as months go by, it seems to me increasingly likely that he is not currently managing any element of the governance of Iran, possibly with his death being kept a state secret.