Resolution criteria

Mojtaba Khamenei was born on September 8, 1969, making him currently 56 years old. This market resolves based on the date of his death, if it occurs. Resolution will be determined by credible international news sources reporting his death, including major news agencies (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.) or official Iranian government announcements. The market will resolve to whichever answer bracket corresponds to the date his death is confirmed.

Background

Mojtaba Khamenei was announced as Iran's new supreme leader on March 8, 2026, following the assassination of his father Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026. According to Iranian state media, he was injured in the 2026 Iran war, though he is reported to be in good health after rumors of an injury were dismissed. The Israeli military has threatened to kill any replacement for the late Ali Khamenei, with Israel's Foreign Ministry calling Mojtaba Khamenei a "tyrant".

Considerations

Despite assurances from Iranian officials and state media, no photograph or video of the newly installed supreme leader has yet been released, fueling speculation among observers. The ongoing 2026 Iran war creates significant uncertainty regarding his safety and longevity in the position.

• Update 2026-03-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The "No" answer corresponds to a bet that Mojtaba Khamenei dies in March (before April 1). Answers after March 31 correspond to deaths occurring between April 1 and December 31, 2026.