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MANIFOLD
Why hasn't Mojtaba Khamenei been seen in public?
11
Ṁ1kṀ3.8k
2027
3%
Dead
3%
Not conscious: in a coma, etc
22%
Other serious injuries make him unable or unwilling to appear in public
59%
In hiding from US/Israeli assassination
4%
He's a puppet/figurehead who can't be trusted to give any statements
9%
Other

Or given any televised statements.

I'll resolve it to whatever the NYT attributes the absence to, but I'll only start checking 3 months after his first public appearance, as allowance for fog of war. I may resolve to prob.

  • Update 2026-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will be a split resolution between all answers invoked in the reporting sampled, not necessarily equal weight

    • December 31 close date is a placeholder; creator will attempt to resolve ~3 months after Mojtaba Khamenei's first public appearance

Market context
Iranian Politics
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Will you resolve to multiple answers per NYT article? Does this close on Dec 31 taking into context all color given by NYT from now to then?

filled a Ṁ20 YES at 52% order

@WallStreetCorgi I think it's probably both injuries and fear of assassination, and I'm not even sure Mojtaba himself knows which consideration dominates, but I think the market is set up to only accept one answer.

@SamuelKnoche My concern is we get a "NYT: Mojtaba Khamenei critically injured by Israeli airstrike while in hiding - US sources state he is in a coma" type thing - but drama in the comment section would be fun too so why not

@WallStreetCorgi I'll try to resolve 3ish months after his first appearance. It will be a split resolution between all answers invoked in the reporting I sample. Not necessarily equal weight. December 31 is a placeholder resolution date.