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MANIFOLD
Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon
2
Ṁ1kṀ186
Dec 31
7%
>50
7%
40-50
7%
30-40
7%
25-30
7%
20-25
12%
15-20
21%
10-15
11%
7.5-10
11%
5-7.5
7%
<5

This market will resolve to the RATIO of the highest 50% time horizon, to the highest 80% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Mythos model to appear on METR's graph.

'Mythos' includes any Claude model that sits above 'Opus' in Anthropic's naming scheme, even if Anthropic ends up calling it something other than Mythos.


Notably, Opus 4.6 had far higher ratio (nearly 12:1) than earlier models (2024 models typically had 3-5:1)
Will this trend continue or reverse? Is reliability improving over time?

Mythos 50% time horizon: https://manifold.markets/jim/claude-mythos-metr-50-time-horizon
Will any model exceed a 3 hr 80% time horizon in 2026: https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-an-ai-model-reach-a-3

Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.


Claude Mythos METR 50% time horizon
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Mythos model to appear on METR's graph. 'Mythos' includes any Claude model that sits above 'Opus' in Anthropic's naming scheme, even if Anthropic ends up calling it something other than Mythos. 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time. See METR's "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" for the technical definition. Claude 3.7 Sonnet, released in February 2025, was the leading model with a 50% horizon of 59 minutes. [image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive. Update 2026-03-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolves N/A if no qualifying model is released by September 30th (2026).
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For Claude Opus 4.6 I see an 11 hrs 59 mins 50% time horizon, and a 1 hr 10 mins 80% time horizon. That looks like a 12:1 ratio, am I measuring something different than you?

@2b3o4o I've just checked. Your numbers look right to me.

I think I was accidentally using the 80% horizon for opus 4 (which was 20 minutes).

Good catch, will correct.

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