Description:

Ahead of the September 24 White House summit, Treasury Secretary Bessent proposed a US–China "notification mechanism" for AI incidents that could affect national security. Beijing has not publicly responded. This market asks whether the two governments actually agree to one.

Resolves YES if: by 11:59 PM ET September 30, 2026, official statements from both the US government and the Chinese government confirm that the two countries have agreed to establish a bilateral mechanism, channel, or hotline for notifying each other of AI-related incidents, risks, or safety events.

Terms:

• Both sides required. Qualifying US sources: a joint statement, White House fact sheet, or on-record statement by the President, Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, or USTR. Qualifying Chinese sources: a joint statement, MFA or Ministry of Commerce readout, or Xinhua report citing the Chinese government. A US-only claim of agreement resolves NO.

• Must be a notification/alert mechanism specifically. An agreement merely to "establish an AI dialogue," "hold consultations," "continue discussions," or form a working group does NOT count unless it includes an incident-notification, warning, or hotline component. Language such as "notification mechanism," "early warning," "incident reporting channel," or "hotline" qualifies; the two sides need not use identical wording as long as both describe the same commitment.

• Agreement to establish suffices. The mechanism need not be operational, staffed, or detailed by the deadline. "Agreed in principle" counts; "agreed to explore" or "will study" does NOT.

• Scope may be narrow. A mechanism limited to military, cyber, or national-security AI incidents counts. A broader AI-safety agreement that includes a notification component counts.

• Post-summit follow-up counts if announced by the deadline, even if not announced on the summit day itself.

• Resolution by the primary government documents, linked in comments.