Resolution criteria

Groundhog Day 2026 occurs on Monday, February 2. The market resolves YES if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow when he comes out of his burrow. The market resolves NO if he does not see his shadow. Resolution will be determined by the official announcement from Punxsutawney Phil's prognostication at approximately 7:25 a.m. at Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Official livestreams are available online for verification.

Background

The prediction depends entirely on whether Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow when he comes out of his burrow. If Phil sees his shadow, he gets scared and runs back into his burrow, predicting six more weeks of winter. If Phil does not see his shadow, he stays above ground, predicting an early spring. Whether he does or does not see his shadow on February 2nd really has more to do with the weather that day than the groundhog itself.

Considerations

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Phil has only been right about 35% to 40% of the time over the last century. Phil has predicted 106 forecasts for winter and 21 for an early spring, making shadow sightings significantly more common historically.