Will the groundhog see his shadow in 2027?

Question

Resolution Criteria

Groundhog Day 2027 occurs on Tuesday, February 2. The market resolves YES if Punxsutawney Phil emerges from his burrow at Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania and sees his shadow. The market resolves NO if Phil does not see his shadow. Resolution will be determined by the official announcement from the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, which can be verified through major news outlets covering the event.

Background

Between 1887 and 2023, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow 107 times and did not see it 20 times. Overall, Phil has only been right 39% of the time going back to his first recorded prediction in 1887, and on average, Phil has gotten it right 30% of the time over the past decade.

Considerations

More often than not, Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, making a YES resolution more likely based on historical frequency alone. However, a new analysis shows he would be twice as accurate if he always predicted an early spring, suggesting the tradition may not align with actual weather patterns.

This description was generated by AI.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 75% chance (12 traders, as of Jul 14, 2026).