Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030?
8
40
Ṁ131Ṁ191
2030
73%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
By default I will use the numbers provided by the GPEI. Note that this is not equivalent to polio eradication by 2030 - we can have a year without cases either by skipping years or through poor observation, for instance. It is also specifically wild polio - I am not counting vaccine derived polio cases.
At market creation the number for 2023 is 10.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will a new pandemic caused by a currently unknown virus be declared by the World Health Organization by 2030?
42% chance
Will there be another major pandemic before the end of 2030
27% chance
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?
77% chance
Will malaria be erradicated before 2030?
9% chance
Will there be any year in the 2020s with fewer than 100,000 malaria deaths?
20% chance
Will polio be eradicated before 2027?
15% chance
[Metaculus] Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?
29% chance
Will at least one human be cured of a prion disease by EOY 2045?
64% chance
Will any human who was never in a human womb reach 1 year of age before 2032?
14% chance
Discourse 2024: Polio eradicated from the Earth?
23% chance