How many total casualties will there be in the Lebanon-Israeli conflict. Total from both sides including civilians.

10kṀ14k

resolved Dec 1

100%71%

1000-10000

0-1000

11%

10000-20000

20000-50000

>50000

Question will stay open until a cease fire deal is agreed to, Isreal leaves Lebanese territory, or a relatively stable status quo with less than 10 casualties a week. Will resolve based on reporting from a source I deem reliable. The Economist or BBC preferred but will use WSJ, NYT, WashPo if needed. I will not bet.

Edit: The start date of the current round of conflict is 8/10/23 and I will do my best to find a reliable source that includes casualties from that date.

Israel

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Arab-Israeli Conflict

Gaza

Lebanon

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bought Ṁ1,500 YES

@JimAusman current estimates are about 3-4k killed on the Lebanese side and about 120 on the Israeli side. Even given error and a potential extra wave of fighting, hard to see this leaving the range.

Ceasefire deal is reached and enacted, time to resolve the question?

@VonGadke technically this is an initial temporary ceasefire with full withdrawal to take place over the next 60 days. Probably worth waiting out at least that period to see if it holds (especially given that Hezbollah isn't a signatory to this ceasefire and still might decide to not go along).

bought Ṁ5 YES

Israel has been at war with Lebanon multiple times and was the cause of the civil war - so it is not far fetched to think it will be another ...

Calling it “the Lebanon-Israel conflict” is equivalent to calling law enforcement against MS-13 “the El Salvador-U.S. conflict”.

bought Ṁ300 NO

Death toll count starts when execaly? 08-10-2023, or the day of the invasion?

@Lemming 8-10-23 though to a certain extent it will depend on my sources. 8-10-23 is the beginning of the conflict according to Wikipedia and a reasonable start date. Thanks for the question.