How many total casualties will there be in the Lebanon-Israeli conflict. Total from both sides including civilians.

Premium

Ṁ10k

2027

0-1000

48%

1000-10000

21%

10000-20000

17%

20000-50000

>50000

Question will stay open until a cease fire deal is agreed to, Isreal leaves Lebanese territory, or a relatively stable status quo with less than 10 casualties a week. Will resolve based on reporting from a source I deem reliable. The Economist or BBC preferred but will use WSJ, NYT, WashPo if needed. I will not bet.

Edit: The start date of the current round of conflict is 8/10/23 and I will do my best to find a reliable source that includes casualties from that date.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇮🇱 Israel

#Arab-Israeli Conflict

#🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

#Gaza

#Lebanon

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1,000

and

3.00

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bought Ṁ5 1000-10000 YES

Israel has been at war with Lebanon multiple times and was the cause of the civil war - so it is not far fetched to think it will be another ...

Calling it “the Lebanon-Israel conflict” is equivalent to calling law enforcement against MS-13 “the El Salvador-U.S. conflict”.

bought Ṁ300 0-1000 NO

Death toll count starts when execaly? 08-10-2023, or the day of the invasion?

@Lemming 8-10-23 though to a certain extent it will depend on my sources. 8-10-23 is the beginning of the conflict according to Wikipedia and a reasonable start date. Thanks for the question.

bought Ṁ250 >50000 NO

@JimAusman if that’s the case, we are already at >2k

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