Inspired by this article:
Resolves NO if, by the end of the current conflict, Lebanon either ceases to exist as a country, undergoes a significant revolution, or otherwise becomes unrecognizable in policy/government to its predecessor.
For example:
If Lebanon breaks into multiple different countries, this question resolves depending on whether Lebanon still exists as one of these countries. If a coup occurs, but the country doesn't change much as a result, this question resolves YES.
If Lebanon's government becomes completely inoperable but otherwise isn't removed from power, this question resolves YES. If Hezbollah is 'surgically' removed from Lebanon leaving the legal system as it is, this question resolves YES.
If Lebanon is annexed by foreign powers and undergoes a forced change of government and policy, this question resolves NO. If they simply remove every single head of state and replace them with someone else, this question resolves YES.
If Lebanon completely collapses as a country and is no longer able to function without outside intervention, this resolves NO (the logic being that if Lebanon is destroyed to the foundation and built again there is a brief moment in time where it will not have survived).
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I will avoid betting so I don't root for either end. If anyone can come up with some wacky edge case scenario, I will be happy to clarify.
This question will close when one of the following is true:
Lebanon ceases to exist.
Israel declares the end of its military action.
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@0482 Yup, there are a lot of scenarios but I think at the end of the day we'll be able to look at the country and know whether it's the same.
This will either be a very boring market or one hell of a ride.
@GCS Well, will that new government keep the same constitution? The same method of election? The same approach to religion?
All of this to say, it depends how much of Lebanon would remain, well, Lebanon. If by the end of this hand-over nothing much changes beyond Lebanon's financial situation then this would resolve YES. The people in charge don't matter per se, more so what they're in charge of.