Transgender US passports with non-birth gender revoked by February 2029? | Manifold

Transgender US passports with non-birth gender revoked by February 2029?

16

100Ṁ1081

2029

46%

chance

14

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Basically the same as my previous market. Same resolution criteria, minus the timeline. De facto situation or any legal action trigger resolution. Phrasing of end of timeline is weird to maximize handling of edge cases.

Trump's Second Term

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opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 35% order

Anyone want to bet against me on no? Happy to do any %

opened a Ṁ150 NO at 70% order

@Rucker I've put an order up at 70% if you're interested

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Rucker A bit more at 80 if you want

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Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?

-6% 1d16% chance

Will Kimmy's transgender (mtf) passport get revoked before its natural expiry date (end of 2028)?

+6% 1d22% chance

Will it be possible for transgender people to leave the US in 2026? (Can renew passports; Not imprisoned)

Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?

Transgender US passport holders allowed correct sex designations when?

Will Trump revoke EXISTING gender-neutral passports in his second term?

ANY safe-to-visit country refuses gender-neutral passports by 2040

Will Canadians with gender-neutral passports be treated equally when travelling to the USA in 2025?

Will 60% or more Americans have a passport by EOY 2025?

Will testosterone for transgender HRT be available in the US on 2026-02-01?

Related questions

Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?

Will Kimmy's transgender (mtf) passport get revoked before its natural expiry date (end of 2028)?

Will it be possible for transgender people to leave the US in 2026? (Can renew passports; Not imprisoned)

Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?

Transgender US passport holders allowed correct sex designations when?

Will Trump revoke EXISTING gender-neutral passports in his second term?

ANY safe-to-visit country refuses gender-neutral passports by 2040

Will Canadians with gender-neutral passports be treated equally when travelling to the USA in 2025?

Will 60% or more Americans have a passport by EOY 2025?

Will testosterone for transgender HRT be available in the US on 2026-02-01?

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