Transgender US passports with non-birth gender revoked by February 2029? | Manifold

Transgender US passports with non-birth gender revoked by February 2029?

16

100Ṁ1206

2029

63%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Basically the same as my previous market. Same resolution criteria, minus the timeline. De facto situation or any legal action trigger resolution. Phrasing of end of timeline is weird to maximize handling of edge cases.

Market context

Trump's Second Term

Get

1,000

to start trading!

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ANY safe-to-visit country refuses gender-neutral passports by 2040

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opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 35% order

Anyone want to bet against me on no? Happy to do any %

opened a Ṁ150 NO at 70% order

@Rucker I've put an order up at 70% if you're interested

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Rucker A bit more at 80 if you want

People are also trading

Will it be possible for transgender people to leave the US in 2026? (Can renew passports; Not imprisoned)

Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?

Will Trump revoke EXISTING gender-neutral passports in his second term?

ANY safe-to-visit country refuses gender-neutral passports by 2040

Will Kimmy's transgender (mtf) passport get revoked before its natural expiry date (end of 2028)?

Will testosterone for transgender HRT be available in the US on 2026-02-01?

Will there be a publicly detrans elected official in the US before 2029?

Will there be a publicly detrans elected official at the state or federal level in the US before 2029?

Will 70% or more Americans have a passport by EOY 2028?

Will any state of the US legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

Related questions

Will it be possible for transgender people to leave the US in 2026? (Can renew passports; Not imprisoned)

Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?

Will Trump revoke EXISTING gender-neutral passports in his second term?

ANY safe-to-visit country refuses gender-neutral passports by 2040

Will Kimmy's transgender (mtf) passport get revoked before its natural expiry date (end of 2028)?

Will testosterone for transgender HRT be available in the US on 2026-02-01?

Will there be a publicly detrans elected official in the US before 2029?

Will there be a publicly detrans elected official at the state or federal level in the US before 2029?

Will 70% or more Americans have a passport by EOY 2028?

Will any state of the US legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

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