US naturalized citizens have citizenship revoked in 2026?
21
100Ṁ2458
2026
98%
chance

This only counts citizens with their citizenship revoked. Voluntary or coerced resignation doesn’t count for this question.

Question closes after 12/31/2026 but I plan to wait a week prior to resolution to ensure that there’s adequate time to discover information.

If a citizenship gets revoked prior to then, I will resolve as soon as I notice and can confirm that the revocation is legit. Feel free to tag me!

  • Update 2025-12-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves YES if at least one naturalized citizen has their citizenship revoked in 2026.

Another market covering the number of forced de naturalizations: https://manifold.markets/JohnSmithb9be/how-many-naturalized-us-citizens-wi-6ynuQ5RIQS?r=Sm9oblNtaXRoYjliZQ

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AFAIK every year a small number of naturalized citizens see their citizenship revoked because they withheld important information.

@AlexanderTheGreater Free mana if you can find a link to one such revocation and @me about it, then!

@JohnSmithb9be article with section about past revocations: https://archive.is/2025.12.01-220230/https://www.axios.com/2025/12/01/trump-naturalized-citizenship-national-guard

I'll see if I can find current data. It would seem unusual though if this suddenly stopped under current admin

@AlexanderTheGreater People like you are why I believe in futarchy to the extent that I do. New and debatably improved market to follow.

@JohnSmithb9be and yet I made a loss because I'm apparently unable to calculate limit orders correctly to just sell my YES without buying NO 😂

@AlexanderTheGreater I have never lost money on a limit order because I’m too dumb to grasp the concept intuitively and too lazy to spend 20 minutes figuring it out.

https://manifold.markets/JohnSmithb9be/how-many-naturalized-us-citizens-wi-6ynuQ5RIQS?r=Sm9oblNtaXRoYjliZQ

Have a possibly-improved market, this time betting on how many people will have a revoked citizenship!

bought Ṁ50 YES

The description sais 12/31/2025. Is that a typo?

@AlexanderTheGreater American way of writing dates I guess ?

Typo, fixed. My fingers are fat like my head.

Is this “all naturalized citizens” or “at least one naturalized citizen”?

@eapache At least one.

@eapache at least one would qualify.

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