This only counts citizens with their citizenship revoked. Voluntary or coerced resignation doesn’t count for this question.
Question closes after 12/31/2026 but I plan to wait a week prior to resolution to ensure that there’s adequate time to discover information.
If a citizenship gets revoked prior to then, I will resolve as soon as I notice and can confirm that the revocation is legit. Feel free to tag me!
Update 2025-12-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves YES if at least one naturalized citizen has their citizenship revoked in 2026.
Another market covering the number of forced de naturalizations: https://manifold.markets/JohnSmithb9be/how-many-naturalized-us-citizens-wi-6ynuQ5RIQS?r=Sm9oblNtaXRoYjliZQ
People are also trading
@AlexanderTheGreater Free mana if you can find a link to one such revocation and @me about it, then!
@JohnSmithb9be article with section about past revocations: https://archive.is/2025.12.01-220230/https://www.axios.com/2025/12/01/trump-naturalized-citizenship-national-guard
I'll see if I can find current data. It would seem unusual though if this suddenly stopped under current admin
@AlexanderTheGreater People like you are why I believe in futarchy to the extent that I do. New and debatably improved market to follow.
@JohnSmithb9be and yet I made a loss because I'm apparently unable to calculate limit orders correctly to just sell my YES without buying NO 😂
@AlexanderTheGreater I have never lost money on a limit order because I’m too dumb to grasp the concept intuitively and too lazy to spend 20 minutes figuring it out.
Have a possibly-improved market, this time betting on how many people will have a revoked citizenship!