Will @ManiFed or @ManiFedTrading experience any sort of data breach before 2027?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ205Ṁ2.3k

Dec 31

13%

chance

ALL

Resolves yes if ManiFed experiences a data breach on their website **********.org (revealed in the near future)

(e.g. API keys leaked, hacked, anything else significant along those lines)

Created because of @Quroe's good idea

https://manifold.markets/post/manifed-user-input-survey-m25-bount#U0luqzOc

Update 2025-12-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a SQL injection vulnerability (or similar security bug) is discovered and tested to the point of confirming its existence (e.g., getting an SQL syntax error from an API response), this will resolve YES even if no actual data was exfiltrated, as the vulnerability itself constitutes evidence that data could have been breached.

Update 2025-12-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a vulnerability is discovered and confirmed (e.g., SQL injection tested to the point of getting an error response), this will resolve YES even if no users were actually affected or data was actually exfiltrated, as the vulnerability itself constitutes evidence that data could have been breached.

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How does it resolve if, say, an API-key-leakage vulnerability is found and reported, and it is fixed before any users are affected?

I've priced that in as a cause for a YES resolution, personally. Like, the data would have been breached, right?

@Quroe Depends. Let's say I find a SQL injection vuln and test it to the extent of getting an SQL syntax error from an API response. That is not itself a data breach but it's a strong indication that a security bug is present that could become a data breach.

@retr0id look, I mean this isn’t an invitation to like intentionally hack us…. now I’m gonna have half of Manifold trying to break the product

@JeromeHPowell In my experience, @retr0id knows how to do stuff that is... well, for lack of a better term, beyond my comprehension.

I have also seen them show restraint on using information that they shouldn't have access to in an (arguably, from my point of view) moral fashion.

White hat hackers are valuable.

@Quroe yes, very much so

@JeromeHPowell Ha! The AI misinterpreted you.

@JeromeHPowell I think treating this market as a sort of bug bounty is a smart idea. Start with some low stakes stuff, and reward people for breaking in if they can.

@JeromeHPowell If the product is going to fail, it's better for it to fail early and fix it rather than much later if/when it's core to everyday life.

@Quroe I agree, I just don’t want everybody on the site to only try to break it

@JeromeHPowell This market has already opened that invitation. 😆

@JeromeHPowell If you opened this market without intending it to spur people here to try to find one, I think you very much do not understand this website.