Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, following the California primary election, the top two candidates for a statewide or federal office appearing on the general election ballot are both members of the Democratic Party, effectively locking the Republican Party out of that specific general election contest. The market resolves to NO otherwise.

Resolution will be determined by the official certified results published by the California Secretary of State at https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/. This market applies to the next scheduled California primary election for any federal or statewide partisan office. If multiple such offices are up for election, the market will resolve to YES if the lockout occurs in any of those races.

Background

California utilizes a "top-two" primary system, established by Proposition 14 in 2010. Under this system, all candidates for a voter-nominated office appear on a single primary ballot regardless of party preference. The two candidates who receive the highest and second-highest number of votes advance to the general election, even if they are from the same political party. This mechanism has previously resulted in general election contests featuring only candidates from the same party, most notably in several U.S. House and state legislative races.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, following the next California primary election for the office of Governor, both candidates advancing to the general election are members of the Democratic Party, effectively excluding the Republican Party from the general election ballot for that office. The market resolves to NO if at least one candidate from the Republican Party advances to the general election, or if no such contest occurs.

Resolution will be determined by the official certified results published by the California Secretary of State at https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/.

Background

California utilizes a "top-two" primary system, established by Proposition 14 in 2010. Under this system, all candidates for a voter-nominated office appear on a single primary ballot regardless of party preference. The two candidates who receive the highest and second-highest number of votes advance to the general election, even if they are from the same political party. While this system has previously resulted in "same-party" general election contests in various U.S. House and state legislative races, a lockout of a major party in a California gubernatorial general election has not occurred under this system.

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Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, following the next California gubernatorial primary election, both candidates advancing to the general election ballot are members of the Democratic Party, effectively excluding the Republican Party from the general election for the office of Governor. The market resolves to NO if at least one candidate from the Republican Party advances to the general election, or if no such contest occurs.

Resolution will be determined by the official certified results published by the California Secretary of State at https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/.

Background

California utilizes a "top-two" primary system, established by Proposition 14 in 2010. Under this system, all candidates for a voter-nominated office appear on a single primary ballot regardless of party preference. The two candidates who receive the highest and second-highest number of votes advance to the general election, even if they are from the same political party. While this system has previously resulted in "same-party" general election contests in various U.S. House and state legislative races, a lockout of a major party in a California gubernatorial general election has not occurred under this system.