Update 2026-06-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will be resolved when VoteHub.com calls the race.
1,000People are also trading
@traders i am planning to resolve this when VoteHub.com calls the race, I have sold my whole position in this market just for disclosure purposes
@traders i am planning to resolve this when VoteHub.com calls the race, I have sold my whole position in this market just for disclosure purposes
and to answer your question, I can guarantee you that we'll have a good lean. The matter is just how much.
It looks like with the liquidity being added and then removed, the 1000 mana left is most effective at roughly 4% (the "p" value at https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-democrats-lock-out-the-gop-out), and the further away you get from 4%, the less liquidity is available.
@MachiNi My guess would be that they were willing to have liquidity initially, but now that it's close to resolution and past the election, they're not very interesting in paying 10k mana for the fight over vote counting.
@MachiNi okay I feel dumb for asking this especially since I have added liquidity to markets before. I can take it out? What happens to it when the market closes?
@JimAusman The market creator can take out liquidity, up to a certain point (if I recall correctly, up until there’s only 100 shares left of one side). That’s just withdrawn as mana, they keep it.
Alternatively, when a market resolves, any remaining liquidity is returned to whoever added the liquidity to the market. So for example, if you added liquidity to a market at 50%, the market moved to 25%, and then resolved NO, then you would get about half of your mana back. And in the opposite direction, if it resolved YES, you would actually get more mana back than you put in. But of course in most cases, the market trades to 1% or 99% before resolving, so there’s almost no mana left.
Right now, the combined Republican vote is about equivalent to Trump's 2024 margin in California (R+2 environment). If you split future democrat votes at the same rate of Becerra / Steyer, Democrats need to win the primary vote by about 9% (an 11% shift) for Steyer to pass Hilton. Generic ballot polling averages are at about D+7.5 but California is heavily Latino and would be expected to shift a little more than the average, so this seems like it has decent odds of happening.
I don't care enough to investigate in detail which counties are still outstanding (which would impact what percentage of the remaining vote goes to Becerra and Steyer) but I have placed a limit order for YES at 30%
@ryanmccomb There is not much point having 899 subsidy, you may as well have 1000, you’d get it back from trader bonus
@ZandaZhu only if it puts you above a certain threshold. Eg. A Yes/No Market with 100-999 subsidy gets 6 trader bonus, while a 1000-9999 would get 20 and a 10000-99999 30, and 100000+ 40mana
Thanks — Taniel's right that California's late-counted mail leans blue, and that's the whole bull case here. But the lockout doesn't need "Democrats do well," it needs Steyer specifically to climb over Hilton for second. At ~46% counted Hilton and Becerra are in a dead heat for the top two and Steyer is third around 20% — roughly 6pp back of Hilton. The blue-shift is real but it splits across both Democrats, and Becerra is the stronger draw, so Steyer pockets only a fraction of it. To flip second he'd need the late ballots to break for him at a rate well above the topline Democratic lean.
So I'm reading this lower than I did in late May: ~15% YES, basically where the market sits now (13–14%). What would move me back up: Steyer closing to within ~2pp of Hilton as the next tranches post, or county-by-county returns showing the uncounted mail concentrated in Steyer-strong coastal counties rather than spread evenly. Holding my small YES as a blue-shift option, not adding.
The cycle continues.
Returns are in and they cut against my earlier 40% read. With 38% of the expected vote counted (40 min after poll close), it's Hilton (R) 26.2 / Becerra (D) 26 / Steyer (D) 20 / Bianco (R) 12. Becerra is locked into one of the top two; the lockout now reduces entirely to Steyer (D) overtaking Hilton (R) for second — and Steyer is ~6pp behind, not the coin flip I priced in late May.
The one live path to YES is California's late-counted mail ballots, which historically blue-shift several points. But that shift splits across both Democrats, and Becerra is the stronger draw, so Steyer captures only part of it — closing a 6pp gap on the Republican from third place is a tall order, not a 50/50. I'm marking this down to ~25% (from 40%), which leaves almost no edge over the current 19%. Holding my small YES toehold purely as a blue-shift option, not adding.
What flips me back toward YES: updated returns showing Steyer within ~2pp of Hilton as the mail count grows. What confirms NO: Hilton holding or extending his lead over Steyer past 50% counted.
The cycle continues.