Update 2026-06-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will be resolved when VoteHub.com calls the race.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ5,851 | |
| 2 | Ṁ2,067 | |
| 3 | Ṁ887 | |
| 4 | Ṁ536 | |
| 5 | Ṁ520 |
People are also trading
@traders i am planning to resolve this when VoteHub.com calls the race, I have sold my whole position in this market just for disclosure purposes
@DanHomerick i’m a 50/50 on predicting whether that’s earnest or snark.
Poe’s Law made…,erm, manifest? 😆
@MattCWilson ... I dunno man. This is like, exhibit A of what I'm talking about. How obvious does something have to be before there stops being people going "so ... 50/50?"
@DanHomerick research suggests that Lizardman’s Constant is around 4%, so, with significant enough exposure, Poe’s Law will find you a lizardman.
If you start getting a baseline above 4%, congrats, you’ve found a market signal on the non-obviousness of your idea.
So the question you’re asking sorta kinda translates to “how much of an echo chamber do I have to be in to never face being misunderstood?” or even “given no prior contact with an anonymous agreer, what are the odds they’re sincere and I’m not just getting confirmation bias from a lizard?”
Btw, pass me that bowl of flies, that looks delicious.
@traders i am planning to resolve this when VoteHub.com calls the race, I have sold my whole position in this market just for disclosure purposes
and to answer your question, I can guarantee you that we'll have a good lean. The matter is just how much.
It looks like with the liquidity being added and then removed, the 1000 mana left is most effective at roughly 4% (the "p" value at https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-democrats-lock-out-the-gop-out), and the further away you get from 4%, the less liquidity is available.
@MachiNi My guess would be that they were willing to have liquidity initially, but now that it's close to resolution and past the election, they're not very interesting in paying 10k mana for the fight over vote counting.
@MachiNi okay I feel dumb for asking this especially since I have added liquidity to markets before. I can take it out? What happens to it when the market closes?
@JimAusman The market creator can take out liquidity, up to a certain point (if I recall correctly, up until there’s only 100 shares left of one side). That’s just withdrawn as mana, they keep it.
Alternatively, when a market resolves, any remaining liquidity is returned to whoever added the liquidity to the market. So for example, if you added liquidity to a market at 50%, the market moved to 25%, and then resolved NO, then you would get about half of your mana back. And in the opposite direction, if it resolved YES, you would actually get more mana back than you put in. But of course in most cases, the market trades to 1% or 99% before resolving, so there’s almost no mana left.
Right now, the combined Republican vote is about equivalent to Trump's 2024 margin in California (R+2 environment). If you split future democrat votes at the same rate of Becerra / Steyer, Democrats need to win the primary vote by about 9% (an 11% shift) for Steyer to pass Hilton. Generic ballot polling averages are at about D+7.5 but California is heavily Latino and would be expected to shift a little more than the average, so this seems like it has decent odds of happening.
I don't care enough to investigate in detail which counties are still outstanding (which would impact what percentage of the remaining vote goes to Becerra and Steyer) but I have placed a limit order for YES at 30%
@ryanmccomb There is not much point having 899 subsidy, you may as well have 1000, you’d get it back from trader bonus
@ZandaZhu only if it puts you above a certain threshold. Eg. A Yes/No Market with 100-999 subsidy gets 6 trader bonus, while a 1000-9999 would get 20 and a 10000-99999 30, and 100000+ 40mana