Article 49, clause 3 of the French Constitution allows the government to impose the adoption of a text by the Assembly, immediately and without a vote.
This question resolves YES if at least one bill passes through the use of 49.3 between October 1, 2024 and the end of year. Resolves NO otherwise.
[Note, Dec 4, 2024:] Title has been renamed from "Will Article 49.3 of the French Constitution be used in 2024?" to better reflect the resolution criterion (which has not changed). Apologies for the confusion.
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Assembly is in recess until January (and has been for a few days), too late now! Closing as a result. https://www2.assemblee-nationale.fr/agendas/les-agendas
Censorship motion has passed, therefore the budget bill (linked to the 49.3 attempt) has not, question is still open. https://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique/gouvernement-de-michel-barnier/le-gouvernement-de-michel-barnier-est-renverse-apres-l-adoption-d-une-motion-de-censure-a-l-assemblee-nationale_6935810.html
@JeremyPerret this appears to be inconsistent with the market’s description: article 49.3 has been used. It just hasn’t been used in a way that ended up well for the government.
@RaphaelBon At the time of the market's creation all uses of 49.3 for decades had ended up in the bill passing... so I foolishly declared the passing of the bill as the resolution criterion, and kept it as is. But you're right, shall I make the title more precise?
@JeremyPerret Ah right I see now that’s the resolution criterion! Yes maybe changing the title would make it clearer.
Article 49.3 has been triggered, and a censorship motion has been advanced. Please note that the bill needs to pass for the question to resolve YES, and if the censorship motion is approved the bill doesn't. https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/budget/video-chacun-doit-prendre-ses-responsabilites-et-je-prends-les-miennes-michel-barnier-declenche-son-premier-49-3-a-l-assemblee-nationale_6932060.html