I might have mis-resolved this. There are rumors of people buying youtube subscribers for destiny to manipulate the 600k markets. That sounds pretty dramatic to me.

@Yev I think this would still be correct, if the alleged manipulation is only surfacing now - I read the title as stating "Another market on Manifold Markets will be a key point in some sort of (significant social drama in 2022)", i.e. the drama occurring in 2022.

@lu I think the rumors started a little before the end of the year, since that's when the markets resolved.

@Yev There's a rumor, but is there any real evidence behind it? Any smoking gun? I'll admit I didn't buy into the 602k market as heavily as I otherwise mightout of fear that secretly the rate of signups had increased due to bot activity, but it stayed steady.

I think it is vastly more likely that shitty sites like

https://socialcounts.org/youtube-live-subscriber-count/UC554eY5jNUfDq3yDOJYirOQ

which put made up numbers on a page and then make sure they tick up on regular intervals to keep their viewership up made it look like bots, after all, the number ticks up every 10 seconds! Except the count on that page resets conspicuously right before its about to get to the next milestone.

@IsaacKing I'd have been expecting more dramatic stuff than just rumors for this to resolve to YES, e.g. people being publicly angry about it.

@lu Yeah, I don't think "prediction market drama" is the same as "social drama". Needs to involve people being upset at each other in real life.

@Yev The scandal market raised as a possible concern by @IsaacKing a couple months ago didn't really rise to a flashpoint, and itself indicates it didn't. This seems like a pretty clear NO to me.

Potentially: https://manifold.markets/ChanaMessinger/scandal-markets-for-ea-related-thin-1b0b7fec0cfc

A market on Manifold Markets will be a key point in some sort of significant social drama in 2022, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition