Will Saudi Arabia abandon the NEOM linear city project by 2028?
101
846
1.6K
2028
50%
chance

Abandoned in this case will mean:

  • Explicitly cancelled

  • Shelved indefinitely (like Jeddah Tower) with no measurable progress in design or construction

  • Scaled back to something vastly more modest (at my disgression)

I will try to judge these criteria as objectively as possible, I do have the personal opinion the project is unrealistic though.

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predicts YES

The word you were looking for is "discretion" (same root as "discreet" here).

predicts NO

Would help to have some guidance on the magnitude that would count as "vastly". I expect they will go slow, but could still be on track to complete the full project in many decades.

predicts NO

Mentioned by @RobinHanson in Why The Line