Will Saudi Arabia abandon (or vastly scale back) the NEOM linear city project by 2028?

Technology•NEOM

128

1.2K

Ṁ32K

Ṁ1.7K

2028

88%

chance

ALL

Abandoned in this case will mean:

Explicitly cancelled

Shelved indefinitely (like Jeddah Tower) with no measurable progress in design or construction
Scaled back to something vastly more modest (at my disgression)

I will try to judge these criteria as objectively as possible, I do have the personal opinion the project is unrealistic though.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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Saudis Scale Back Ambition for $1.5 Trillion Desert Project Neom - Bloomberg
By 2030, the government at one point hoped to have 1.5 million residents living in The Line, a sprawling, futuristic city it plans to contain within a pair of mirror-clad skyscrapers. Now, officials expect the development will house fewer than 300,000 residents by that time, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Officials have long said The Line would be built in stages and they expect it to ultimately cover a 170-kilometer stretch of desert along the coast. With the latest pullback, though, officials expect to have just 2.4 kilometers of the project completed by 2030, the person familiar with the matter said, who asked not to be named discussing non-public information.

at my disgression

Someone’s paying someone to make this market.

bought Ṁ5,000 YES

Ha-ha. The original author of this market is now "Deleted account"

I was going to ask a question to the author: "what are the rules for the early resolution — are you going to resolve this market early or you are planning to resolve it in 2029 no matter what?"

bought Ṁ250 YES

https://thecradle.co/articles-id/24316

Saudi cuts back NEOM desert city plans by 98.6 percent
[...] an unnamed official told Bloomberg on 5 April that the project would be scaled back to 2.4 kilometers, with a reduced capacity of less than 300,000 residents.

bought Ṁ100 YES

Is it a good definition of scaled back?

@figo That sounds more like a delay to me, rather than scaling back the plan.

@figo Seems like a huge scale-back to me

predicts YES

The word you were looking for is "discretion" (same root as "discreet" here).

predicts NO

Would help to have some guidance on the magnitude that would count as "vastly". I expect they will go slow, but could still be on track to complete the full project in many decades.