What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?
12
1kṀ727
2029
26
expected

This will likely have to resolve in part by my judgment -- at least in Madoff, recoveries under a certain amount weren't individually published. I do not trade in markets with any degree of subjectivity, so will not trade in this one. Please ask if you have any questions!

"FTX Future Fund" includes any grant that was listed on the FTX Future Fund website, irrespective of who the actual grantor was (North Dimension, SBF, FTX Philantrophy, etc . . ." The question encompasses all grants irrespective of when made (but does not include grants that were never dispursed). It does not include any donations that were not listed on the FTX Future Fund website.

"Grant" excludes equity investments.

"Grant funds" is by percentage of monies, not by percentage of grants.

"Returned/clawed back" means that the money is actually returned -- whether voluntarily, after settlement, or after a court order. It includes any payment by a third party to settle a claim against a grantee. It does not include clawbacks that the FTX Debtors failed to collect for any reason.

If proceedings are still ongoing by the end of 2028, I will resolve using an expected-value approach. In setting probabilities, I would give great weight to then-current court decisions that are on appeal or likely to be appealed, although I won't give any more weight to a district court's appealed decision than to a bankruptcy court ruling it reversed. I am a lawyer, but not a bankruptcy specialist.

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