Is AI a greater existential risk to humanity than a pandemic?
11
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Ṁ2kṀ100
resolved Feb 5
Resolved as
18%1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will resolve this market to the current probability (MKT) after trading closes next week.
For example, that means if it ends at 90%, YES bettors will get 90% of the pool and NO bettors would get 10% of the pool, distributed in proportion to each bettor's shares of each pool.
AI existential risk is typically framed as an out-of-control AI intentionally or incidentally taking actions that kill all humans.
Pandemic risk includes both engineered and naturally occurring pathogens including viruses and bacteria that could wipe out humanity.
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But I do believe AI risk has a higher percent chance of wiping out all of humanity.
(Another variant of this kind of question would be: "At the end of a week, will James believe that AI is a greater existential risk than a pandemic?", and then traders can post arguments to persuade James one way or the other)
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