Will someone vote in a US presidential election from the moon before 2060
Will someone vote in a US presidential election from the moon before 2060
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If there are credible reports of a us citizen voting for president from the moon this will resolve yes
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voting in the presidential election itself or would a major party presidential primary count? does it count if the astronaut just submitted a mail in or absentee ballot before election day?
bought Ṁ10 NO
@JamesF imo it's more about the timing of a prolonged moon mission overlapping with the election -- the more elections that qualify, the more likely it will happen.
I'm assuming based on your answer that it would NOT count if they merely filled out a mail-in/absentee ballot on earth and happened to be on the moon during the actual election?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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