If Donald trump loses the 2024 election or 2024 primary will he run in 2028

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Ṁ1413

2028

15%

chance

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Conditional on trump losing the 2024 election or dropping out at any time will he then run again four years later will resolve N/A if he wins, will resolve no if he dies after this election cycle, will resolve N/A if he dies between now and Election Day

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Trump

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What constitutes a run for president? Does he have to declare that he's running or is holding a political rally enough? If he holds a political rally at any time after losing or being bared from taking office in 2024 does the market resolve YES?

@becauseyoudo He would have to have a serious run for president I would say registering to be on the ballot in at least the early states or announcing a run for the presidency would be enough by holding rally’s isn’t

predicts NO

The problem with this bet is that it binds up mana for a long period and have a 40% chance of ending in N/A

@Marq That’s what loans are for

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