Eliezer Yudowsky is a renowned AI Alignment researcher. Recently on sabatical from the the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) after apparently losing hope in the fight to prevent missaligned AI from being developed.
He recently appeared on the Bankless Podcast indicating that he had given up but was putting himself out there for (apparently) very frank interviews.
Lex Fridman is an MIT Machine Learning researcher and podcaster.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,688 | |
| 2 | Ṁ3,632 | |
| 3 | Ṁ2,195 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1,319 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1,067 |
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For those who think Alignment is an issue, here's a market which uses an engineering benchmark to measure one dimension of alignment:
in Caleb's defence, I think this was a worse episode compared to Lex's other interviews (though I've only listened to 2) and also not as interesting as Eliezer's apperances on other podcasts.
but I think it was in both of their interests to have done this episode even still
@NathanNguyen Not the first time this has happened - and not an uncommon problem experienced by theorists who have been ensconced in their ivory towers with similar people who do understand/share certain basic assumptions with them.
In lieu of the broadcast going out, I admit defeat.
My reasoning for my bets:
initially, as stated in the comments (Lex is not a good podcaster, and I stand by this)
secondarily, I noticed Eliezer buying small amounts on this bet for Yes and thought to myself "he's trying to bait for more activity on this bet, otherwise he would bet his entire portfolio - thus, he must actually NOT be going on the podcast"
thirdly, I committed far too hard to this belief
fourth, I'm still placing a small percentage on this actually still being a ploy, but that's below one percent at this point, but still path it to not sell my shares, so whatever
I am bad at predicting things, shrug.
We already recorded this broadcast, though I agree that it shouldn't resolve until the broadcast goes up.
@JamesBills obviously if Lex just talks about having Eliezer on the podcast, that's not sufficient to resolve the market.
@JamesBills Sorry didn't mean to ask for resolution, was just sharing for info, I 100% agree with you
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be
On Lex Fridman's podcast, we'll see
In 2023, will they meet?
Or will this prediction face defeat?
@JamesBills nah this was on purpose. kind of a long play but I still don't think it was a bad idea
(I'm not an idiot and I do know how this works...I'll clarify my strategy once this resolves either way)
Well, if the strategy was to give free Ṁoney to Eliezer, then this is a complete success.
@CalebDitchfield I can't imagine any strategy that involves buying down to 20 when both Eliezer and Lex have already said that they'll do a podcast 🤔
It was posted in the comments, too. I guess I'll wait for that clarification after the market resolves.
@LeoSpitz possibly a record! @CalebDitchfield I hope you created another account and just had a fresh start!
