Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the Lex Fridman podcast in 2023?
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the Lex Fridman podcast in 2023?
117
2kṀ200k
resolved Mar 30
Resolved
YES

Eliezer Yudowsky is a renowned AI Alignment researcher. Recently on sabatical from the the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) after apparently losing hope in the fight to prevent missaligned AI from being developed.

He recently appeared on the Bankless Podcast indicating that he had given up but was putting himself out there for (apparently) very frank interviews.

Lex Fridman is an MIT Machine Learning researcher and podcaster.

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2y

For those who think Alignment is an issue, here's a market which uses an engineering benchmark to measure one dimension of alignment:

predictedYES 2y

@JamesBills Please resolve.

predictedYES 2y
predictedYES 2y

in Caleb's defence, I think this was a worse episode compared to Lex's other interviews (though I've only listened to 2) and also not as interesting as Eliezer's apperances on other podcasts.
but I think it was in both of their interests to have done this episode even still

predictedYES 2y

@Sinclair Yeah, I feel like there was an inferential distance problem going on. Eliezer seemed to assume Lex would be on board with more assumptions than he actually was

predictedYES 2y

@NathanNguyen Not the first time this has happened - and not an uncommon problem experienced by theorists who have been ensconced in their ivory towers with similar people who do understand/share certain basic assumptions with them.

2y

When will it be releaaaaseeed?

2y

@MaxG now

predictedNO 2y

In lieu of the broadcast going out, I admit defeat.

My reasoning for my bets:

  • initially, as stated in the comments (Lex is not a good podcaster, and I stand by this)

  • secondarily, I noticed Eliezer buying small amounts on this bet for Yes and thought to myself "he's trying to bait for more activity on this bet, otherwise he would bet his entire portfolio - thus, he must actually NOT be going on the podcast"

  • thirdly, I committed far too hard to this belief

  • fourth, I'm still placing a small percentage on this actually still being a ploy, but that's below one percent at this point, but still path it to not sell my shares, so whatever

I am bad at predicting things, shrug.

2y

@CalebDitchfield Thanks for explaining your thoughts!

predictedYES 2y
predictedYES 2y

We already recorded this broadcast, though I agree that it shouldn't resolve until the broadcast goes up.

predictedYES 2y

@EliezerYudkowsky Any plans for other podcasts yet?

predictedYES 2y

This should be resolved? When do you plan to resolve it lol

predictedYES 2y

@RahulShah how can this be resolved now?

predictedYES 2y

@MarcusAbramovitch My bad I misread the comment below

predictedYES 2y
predictedYES 2y

@Lorenzo If Eliezer appears in this episode and engages with Sam or Lex, I will resolve it when I confirm. Feel free to timestamp me for quicker resolution.

This market is based on the assumption that Eliezer yudkowsky =/= Sam Altman...

predictedYES 2y

@JamesBills obviously if Lex just talks about having Eliezer on the podcast, that's not sufficient to resolve the market.

predictedYES 2y

@JamesBills Sorry didn't mean to ask for resolution, was just sharing for info, I 100% agree with you

2y

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be
On Lex Fridman's podcast, we'll see
In 2023, will they meet?
Or will this prediction face defeat?

predictedYES 2y

Caleb must be doing UBI

2y

@LeoSpitz or quantum suicide to win lotteries!

2y

Hahaha lovely to see Eliezer himself betting here after this market dipped to 20%. Niiceee

2y

@firstuserhere indeed it is

predictedYES 2y

@CalebDitchfield how do you have so much MANA lmao

predictedYES 2y

@LeoSpitz He's a new account and limit bought NO at 20%, I think by mistake :/ sucks if the case.

predictedNO 2y

@JamesBills nah this was on purpose. kind of a long play but I still don't think it was a bad idea

predictedNO 2y

(I'm not an idiot and I do know how this works...I'll clarify my strategy once this resolves either way)

2y

@CalebDitchfield Can't wait to hear it!

predictedYES 2y

Well, if the strategy was to give free Ṁoney to Eliezer, then this is a complete success.

2y

@CalebDitchfield I can't imagine any strategy that involves buying down to 20 when both Eliezer and Lex have already said that they'll do a podcast 🤔

It was posted in the comments, too. I guess I'll wait for that clarification after the market resolves.

predictedYES 2y

@LeoSpitz possibly a record! @CalebDitchfield I hope you created another account and just had a fresh start!

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