Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if the U.S. and Cuba announce a formal diplomatic agreement by March 22, 2026. The agreement must be officially confirmed by both governments through official statements or announcements. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the White House, U.S. State Department, or Cuban government sources. Any agreement covering economic, political, or humanitarian matters qualifies. The market resolves NO if no such agreement is announced by the deadline.

Background

Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed on March 13, 2026 that his government has held talks with the Trump administration. Díaz-Canel warned that negotiations are "long processes" that require willingness and channels for dialogue, saying "All of that takes time." The terms of the deal being discussed reportedly focus on economics more than politics, with potential agreements on ports, energy, and tourism in exchange for some relief from U.S. sanctions. Cuba announced plans to allow Cuban nationals living abroad to invest in companies on the island, with Deputy Prime Minister Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga stating "Cuba is open to having a fluid commercial relationship with U.S. companies." However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that these economic reforms are not sufficient, while announcing the Trump Administration's determination to achieve regime change on the island.

Considerations

The talks are still "in their first phase" with negotiators working "to establish an agenda." Cuba's chief of mission in the United States stated that changes to Cuba's political system are off limits. Whether Washington and Havana can reach an agreement depends on whether there is enough common ground between the minimum conditions Trump is willing to accept and the maximum concessions Cuban leaders are willing to make, with demands for political change potentially being too bitter a pill for any Cuban leader to swallow.