Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if, before the moment Donald Trump leaves the presidency (by resignation, removal, death, or at noon ET on January 20, 2029 per the 20th Amendment), the U.S. embargo on Cuba is legally terminated in either of these ways:

  • Congress enacts a law that repeals/terminates the statutory embargo (e.g., Helms–Burton/related provisions), as shown on Congress.gov and reflected in the U.S. Code or Federal Register. Example of such proposed legislation: S.136 (119th Congress). (congress.gov)

  • The President submits the determination that a “democratically elected government in Cuba is in power” under 22 U.S.C. §6063(c)(3), which by statute terminates the embargo and repeals specified provisions (22 U.S.C. §6064(d)), with corresponding OFAC updates to 31 CFR Part 515. (law.cornell.edu)

• Resolves NO if neither condition occurs by the time Trump leaves office (default deadline: noon ET Jan 20, 2029). (constitution.congress.gov)

• Clarifications: Regulatory easing, licensing changes, or list designations (e.g., State Sponsors of Terrorism) do not count as “lifting the embargo” absent the statutory termination described above. Verification sources at resolution: Congress.gov (final public law pages), the U.S. Code/Constitution Annotated, Federal Register/Treasury OFAC (31 CFR Part 515). (govinfo.gov)

Background

• The embargo is codified in the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity (Helms–Burton) Act and related laws; termination requires congressional action or a statutory presidential determination tied to democratic change in Cuba. (en.wikipedia.org)

• In 2025, a repeal bill (United States–Cuba Trade Act of 2025, S.136) was introduced but not enacted. (congress.gov)

• Trump began a second term on January 20, 2025 and has since reaffirmed support for maintaining/strengthening Cuba sanctions. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

• The “democratically elected government” pathway in 22 U.S.C. §6064 sets a high bar; absent regime change in Cuba, repeal via Congress is the realistic route. Traders should distinguish headline regulatory tweaks (OFAC licenses, travel rules) from statutory termination that resolves this market. (law.cornell.edu)