Will an AI system out-perform the Metaculus community prediction before 2026? Any amount of scaffolding is allowed.
If this does not happen, and no negative result comes out in the last quarter of 2025, then this question resolves to my subjective credence that this could be done with an existing AI system and scaffolding. Specifically, my credence on the proposition 'Using 4 months of individual-engineering time, a pre-2026 AI could be fine-tuned and scaffolded to out-perform, on mean brier score, over all binary questions on Metaculus
I will not participate in this market.
@NoaNabeshima Yes my subjective credence includes limited fine-tuning things like the berkeley group's level of fine-tuning are fine.
@JacobPfau wdym by "hold on average for at least 50% of the questions"? if they outperform it'll be an average of theirs vs an average of metaculus, I would think?
@Bayesian You're right that the question phrasing implied all questions, though I didn't specify binary vs time series etc. I'll come back to this tomorrow.