
Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community?
45
1kṀ51542026
58%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will an AI system out-perform the Metaculus community prediction before 2026? Any amount of scaffolding is allowed.
If this does not happen, and no negative result comes out in the last quarter of 2025, then this question resolves to my subjective credence that this could be done with an existing AI system and scaffolding. Specifically, my credence on the proposition 'Using 4 months of individual-engineering time, a pre-2026 AI could be fine-tuned and scaffolded to out-perform, on mean brier score, over all binary questions on Metaculus
I will not participate in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
How well will I (@draaglom) forecast on Metaculus in 2025? (Peer accuracy leaderboard)
Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?
77% chance
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2030?
82% chance
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
46% chance
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2035?
42% chance
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2025?
93% chance
How autonomous will AI be in February 2026, per METR?
By which years will AI be shown to have a better log loss than the Metaculus community pred. on <= 1 year predictions?
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2026?
90% chance