Richard Ngo predicted this here.

Resolution Criterion: Ask Richard if he believes this has been passed in Jan 2026, resolve to his answer. Will ask him about comparison to the median reviewer for a recent ICLR. Question posed to Richard will address both Turing-test style anonymized preference judgment and capacity to spot important errors in papers (described here) separately; resolving to 50% if his beliefs are different on these two capabilities. If Richard declines to respond, I will resolve to a percentage value reflecting my credence. If there's material disagreement (20-80% market value at time of resolution) I will divest before resolving to avoid conflict of interest.

If you ask in the comments I can clarify any aspect of this resolution criteria.